Finland

Australia and New Zealand Banking Group, Aareal bank and Compagnie de Financement Foncier successfully raised a collective €2.5bn on Monday, opening the way for Deutsche Pfandbriefbank, Nordea and Credit Mutuel-CIC - which are expected to launch and price deals on Tuesday.

Euro benchmark supply will drop in 2012, covered bond analysts predict, despite the product having become the cornerstone of bank funding. Rarely have analysts’ expectations diverged so far, with issuance estimates ranging from €120bn-€190bn.

Moody’s has placed Aktia Real Estate Mortgage Bank’s covered bonds on review for downgrade after taking the same action on the bank’s A1 senior rating, partly due to its reliance on covered bonds as a funding tool.

A stronger than normal bid from Nordic investors helped Finland’s Sampo Housing Loan Bank to sell a no grow €1bn five year covered bond, its second benchmark this year, on Wednesday.

Finland’s Sampo Housing Loan Bank launched a five year deal on Wednesday, three weeks after it finished a European roadshow. The deal attracted a wide range of accounts and looks assured of success, boding well for other smaller bank issuance.

A UK based covered bond investor spoke to The Cover about the sovereign crisis. He believes the primary market should still be able to function, though the group of issuers capable of doing a deal will be much smaller. Greece is beyond hope, but he says the rest of Europe can still be saved.

Despite a meeting of the world’s central bankers at Jackson Hole Nordea Bank Finland kept the primary market alive on Friday, launching a successful €1.5bn five year deal. Syndicate officials welcomed three consecutive days of primary supply, though market conditions have deteriorated since a trio of well received benchmark trades on Thursday. Secondary liquidity still leaves much to be desired, they said, and has not been helped by the attractive premiums offered by the latest issues.

French covered bonds have widened in the secondary market following concern that the sovereign could lose its triple-A rating. Meanwhile traders reported buying in Spanish and Italian covered bonds as investors move out of government paper.

Finland’s OP Mortgage Bank came to market on Friday with the first seven year Scandinavian covered bond of the year, pricing a no-grow Eu1bn trade. Despite the bank’s prime Scandinavian collateral, the transaction fell just short of Eu1bn of orders.

After more than a week without primary euro issuance, BNP Paribas and OP Mortgage Bank on Friday broke ranks and opened books on 10 a year and seven year deal respectively. BNP closed books on a well received Eu2bn transaction by mid-morning, while execution on OP’s Eu1bn no-grow deal was less straightforward.

The Greek parliament met market expectations yesterday and approved the austerity bill, ushering in a period of mild relief however temporary it turns out to be. Secondary market flows picked up, particularly for Spanish cédulas which showed stronger buying interest. But covered bond syndicate officials do not expect a long window for primary issuance. CRH and OP bank have been quick to take advantage of the more positive mood with the former raising Eu1bn of 11 year funding via a tap and the latter mandating leads for a seven year to be priced tomorrow.

Covered bond bankers expect the Greek parliament to approve austerity measures in today’s vote, but even if that happens, they do not expect much of a relief rally. If the measures are not approved then it’s likely that the consequences will be catastrophic.