Europe

Flows of capital to emerging markets will increase this year; equity markets will benefit the most, while bonds will stagnate, the IIF predicts

Deutsche Genossenschafts-Hypothekenbank was in the Pfandbrief market for the first time in more than six years on Tuesday, selling a €500m seven year that followed other German deals this month in hugging the mid-swaps level.

Concerns about a rise in protectionism in the BRIC economies and developed markets run high; smaller countries are seen as more open

Banco Santander’s first covered bond for nearly a year, a €2bn five year, surprised the market by hitting the middle part of the curve on Monday. The spread did not change from initial price thoughts to final terms, which showed the plan had been to take a large chunk out of the market, bankers told The Cover.

Deutsche Genossenschafts-Hypothekenbank has hired banks for a mortgage Pfandbrief, which is pencilled in for Tuesday. It may have company from Commerzbank, which The Cover understands is also eyeing Tuesday for Europe’s first ever SME structured covered bond.

This year is one in which investors should take more risk in emerging markets, especially in equities, strategists at HSBC say

Deutsche Hypothekenbank was set to price a €500m five year mortgage backed Pfandbrief early on Tuesday afternoon from an order book of close to €600m. The deal was modestly oversubscribed, compared with Aareal Bank’s five year on Monday, but it was an improvement on Deutsche Hypo’s previous outing last September.

Aareal Bank has issued the first Pfandbrief of the year, attracting a comfortably oversubscribed book and pricing flat to its curve. Despite the appetite for high yielding risk, the deal showed that there is still plenty of appetite for core covered bonds, ­even if they are backed a high proportion of commercial loans from outside Germany.

Emerging markets, which have “kept trade moving” and “commodity prices afloat” during the financial crisis are again a source of risk

UniCredit put on a demonstration of the New Year’s appetite for risk on Monday morning when it priced a €1bn seven year covered bond from a €6.5bn book. Demand for the deal has been granular with the pricing, at 150bp over mid-swaps, being 90bp through the government curve.

The recent Fed minutes signaling a reversal of the money-printing policy should not worry emerging markets investors, analysts say

Two French covered bond issuers have very different outlooks for 2013, with Dexia Municipal Agency on an upward path, while Compagnie de Financement Foncier (CFF) faces rating uncertainty, which it hopes to resolve soon. Traders believe the spread differential for the two issuers is likely to converge this year and may even cross over.