Canada

Bank of Montreal (BMO) seized on robust US demand for Canadian covered bonds, printing $2bn of five year notes on Monday. The deal brings total US dollar issuance this month to $6bn from three deals, a record for January.

Lingering concerns about the depth of the 144A market have been allayed after Bank of Nova Scotia’s $2.5bn deal on Friday on the back of more than $5bn orders took this January’s supply beyond last year’s almost record levels.

As eurozone issuers slip into blackout, Australian, Nordic and Canadian names have taken over primary market supply. Westpac is planning trades in euros and Australian dollars, while Sparebank 1 Boligkreditt began taking indications of interest on a seven year trade this Monday morning.

In a difficult year, when even Europe’s chosen investment instrument, the covered bond, struggled, new markets continued to grow. Canadian banks sold big trades with ease, US dollar supply reached record levels and covered bonds reached a new continent. All exciting developments with implications for 2012 and beyond.

Euro benchmark supply will drop in 2012, covered bond analysts predict, despite the product having become the cornerstone of bank funding. Rarely have analysts’ expectations diverged so far, with issuance estimates ranging from €120bn-€190bn.

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce has priced its first deal after leaving blackout, and the first deal from the jurisdiction in over a month. Canadian banks are not exempt from offering larger premiums to ensure successful execution but continue to find strong support for their product in a market largely closed to European buyers.

In a world echoing with cries for tighter banking regulation, Canada risks strangling one of the most promising covered bond markets through overly stringent supervision.

Activity has once again shifted into dollars, with European investors paralysed by a lack of detail on the upcoming ECB covered bond purchase programme and a resolution of the sovereign debt crisis. Meanwhile Canadian banks issue dollar deals with ease, and Australia’s big four could be swayed into taking the same route for their respective debuts, said syndicate officials.

Since its inception in 2008, Canada’s covered bond market has grown steadily to become the cornerstone of US dollar supply. The next step will be the enactment of a covered bond law which will allow Canadian banks to reach investors across the globe. Between regulation and legislation, however, Canadian covered bond issuers face stringent limitations on the product’s use.

Market indices rallied on Thursday, following the EU’s unveiling of its Grand Plan to remedy the eurozone’s woes. BPCE was quick to capitalise on the upturn, securing nearly four times oversubscription for a minimum €200m tap of its 10 year. Bank Austria also moved swiftly on the positive mood and is taking IOIs for possible pricing this afternoon or Friday. Bank of Montreal showed the strength of US demand on Wednesday, when it attracted $3.75bn of demand for its $2bn three year deal. But the floodgates are unlikely to open fully ahead of November 3 when the ECB will announce details of its purchase programme.

Crédit Mutuel-CIC Home Loan SFH kept the euro market alive on Tuesday with an increase of an outstanding 10 year trade. The €200m tap is the sum total of primary issuance in the last week, though Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce proved the dollar segment’s resilience to market volatility by taking supply over the same period to $7bn.

Against a backdrop of pervasive hesitancy in the euro market, triple-A rated Toronto Dominion Bank launched the largest ever dollar deal on Wednesday. The $5bn dual tranche trade broke the record held by HBOS, which sold a $3bn 10 year trade in 2007.