Market commentary

  • 24 Jul 2003
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Compiled by Holger Kron
Deutsche Bank, Frankfurt
Tel: +49 69 9103 4468

While core markets opened weaker, the Polish market started more or less unchanged into this week. This was surprising following last week's comments a the MPC meeting, which cast doubt on the prospect of further rate cuts. Also the IMF said there was no need for further monetary easing, which should have put some pressure on bonds. Friday's release of H1 food data also implied another higher CPI headline data for this month.

However, MPC member Dariusz Rosati said further rate cuts would be possible as long as CPI remains benign and demand recovery remains moderate.

On Tuesday CPI data was released at 1.1 % y/y, the market became more positive and traded up marginally, awaiting tomorrow's (Friday's) monthly food price data, to get another hint on inflationary development.

The currency story remains the main block to foreign investment in the Polish bond market with the zloty this week again tracking movements in the Hungarian forint. Additionally participants are wary about the weakness in global fixed income markets, as continuing bond market weakness could indicate a change of the rate cycle.

Friday's cabinet agreement on the 2004 budget could de-link the Polish bond market from the European one. Additionally, the amelioration of the relationship between MPC and the government is clearly favourable for the currency too.

  • 24 Jul 2003

All International Bonds

Rank Lead Manager Amount $bn No of issues Share %
  • Last updated
  • Today
1 JPMorgan 92.59 388 8.96%
2 Citi 85.30 278 8.25%
3 BofA Securities 63.15 265 6.11%
4 Barclays 58.01 223 5.61%
5 Deutsche Bank 55.74 184 5.39%

Bookrunners of All Syndicated Loans EMEA

Rank Lead Manager Amount $bn No of issues Share %
  • Last updated
  • Today
1 BNP Paribas 60.87 123 14.06%
2 Credit Agricole CIB 28.59 93 6.60%
3 Santander 25.41 90 5.87%
4 JPMorgan 23.88 61 5.52%
5 UniCredit 21.51 103 4.97%

Bookrunners of all EMEA ECM Issuance

Rank Lead Manager Amount $bn No of issues Share %
  • Last updated
  • Today
1 Goldman Sachs 2.07 11 10.42%
2 BofA Securities 1.40 6 7.01%
3 Citi 1.37 7 6.87%
4 Morgan Stanley 1.36 6 6.85%
5 JPMorgan 1.31 7 6.59%