Maturity: 21 November 2016
Issue/re-offer price: 100.00
Spread at re-offer: 197bp over the 4.625 US Treasury
Launched: Wednesday 15 November 2006
Payment date: 20 November
Joint books: Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, UBS
UBS — The roadshows started on Friday on the West Coast of the US, where there are a few big investors that have bought Ukraine in the past. On Monday we continued in New York where the meetings were well attended. More than 20 people came to the group meeting in New York and we also had one on one meetings with the bigger funds. We then had two group meetings in London on Tuesday, which attracted a combined attendance of more than 30 accounts as well as one-on-ones.
The reception on the roadshow was quite positive and the sovereign itself has good numbers. The debt to GDP ratio is about 16% and GDP growth is above 6%. In the low-BB to high single-B territory, these numbers are significantly better than you would expect.
Ukraine's last dollar deal came in 2004 and the last 10 year the previous year. So there was a lot of interest in this deal and the roadshow was excellent in terms of the volume and quality of interest we generated.
We went out with guidance on Tuesday afternoon, after the roadshow finished, in the 200bp area over Treasuries. Some accounts regarded that level — the equivalent of 148 over mid-swaps as aggressive.
At the time, Ukraine's 10 year 2015 euro deal was trading at 170bp over mid-swaps and its 2013 at 160bp over mid-swaps.
The 200bp level implied a pick up of less than 40bp from a 6.5 year to a 10 year issue, a level that accounts saw as aggressive.
Despite this, the order book built well and was oversubscribed by the following morning. With $2.5bn in demand and a positive response from investors, we revised guidance to 195bp-200bp over Treasuries just after midday on Wednesday.
We then priced late Wednesday at 197bp with a good level of oversubscription.
Overall, the deal got a good reception. It is the largest single tranche deal ever from Ukraine and is the tightest pricing they have achieved in spread terms.
The fact it was a dollar deal skewed it away from the continental Europe, and the pricing was not juicy enough for Asian names. We had some sizeable orders from the UK, with some north of $100m. That ensured UK investors took the bulk of the deal holding 43% of the paper, US took 25%, Benelux 8%, Switzerland 4%, Greece 4%, Asia 4%, Germany and Austria 3%, Iberia 3%, Scandinavia 3% and France 3%.
By type, fund managers took 70%, banks 15%, insurance companies 8%, sovereigns 5% and retail 2%.
This is a good result, and Ukraine can be proud of its achievements over the past 12 months. This was priced inside Ukraine's implied curve and the fact they got $1bn is an important milestone.
Overall, an excellent transaction.
"... looked good to me and has traded up slightly in secondary."