The growing pipeline of securitizations backed by Italian leases could face trouble in the market, warn London-based asset-backed analysts. Italian lease deals have been characterized as a difficult sale, because many investors are full up on the paper after a landslide of deals last year, notes one ABS analyst. He was also wary of the lease originators, saying they book future income too aggressively. "It's wishful thinking that all these deals will get done," he says. There is roughly E3 billion worth of Italian lease deals in the pipeline at the moment.
Another analyst notes that last year the Italian lease securitization market tripled in size, making it the fastest-growing market in Europe. In 2002, there was about E6.6 billion worth of Italian lease deals completed.
Bankers expect lease deals from IntesaBCI (E1.5 billion), MPS Leasing (E700 million) and SBS Leasing (E500 million). The IntesaBCI and MPS deals, will be self-led. Anna di Paolo, head of structuring at MPS, was out of the office and could not be reached for comment. Calls to Stefano Patruno, head of structuring at IntesaBCI, were not returned.
Earlier this year the E450 million Ponte Vecchio II deal, that was pulled earlier this month, because of adverse market conditions (BW, 4/7). At that time, Merrill Lynch's securitization research team noted, in general, the complexity of Italian lease deals and the lack of uniformity from deal-to-deal, make them risky for the spreads being received by investors.
