Markets gave a unanimous thumbs-up to the European Central Bank's decision to raise its repo rate by 50bp yesterday (Thursday), ending weeks of uncertainty over the outlook for interest rates. Not only was the increase already priced into the market, but the decision to opt for a 50bp rise rather than a 25bp rise to maintain stability for longer periods boosted confidence in the ECB. European government bonds rallied on news of the rate hike, outperforming US Treasuries, which nevertheless remained well supported this week ahead of non-farm payrolls data today (Friday). Barring any nasty surprises from the employment figures, market participants can look forward to a rare period of certainty over interest rates. Bankers and borrowers hope that such calm will entice investors to put some of the cash they have built up into the fixed rate markets before they close their books ahead of the year end. Judging by the success of Fannie Mae's two benchmark note issues, a new three year and an increase to the September 2009 transaction, and Finova's dollar global bond, investor appetite for big, liquid transactions continues unabated in the dollar market. Freddie Mac will hope to capture some of this demand when it reopens its 6.25% 2004 reference note on Monday. The size of the reopening is $3bn, bringing the total amount of the issue to $6bn. Joint lead managers are Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Merrill Lynch. US appetite for capital securities will be tested today when Nordbanken issues $300m of tier 1 debt and $500m of lower tier 2 debt via Merrill Lynch. The market anticipates the tier 2 tranche to be structured as a 10 non-call five year deal with a fixed coupon to the call and step-up and floating rate thereafter. The inaugural bond by Western Corporate Federal Credit Union (WesCorp) - the largest corporate credit union in the US - resoundingly demonstrated the depth of demand that exists for well priced 20% risk weighted floaters. The $250m five year bond, lead managed by Lehman Brothers, was a sell-out at the re-offer of Libor plus 25bp, with many investors being scaled back. Ahead of the ECB meeting the euro sector almost came to a standstill. Fixed rate euro issuance was near its lows for the year, with the only two new issues totalling a mere Eu400m. But several corporates will attempt to take advantage of the new stability in the coming week. The first should be German corporate Leoni, expected today (Friday) with its Eu75m debut via Dresdner Kleinwort Benson. The seven year fixed rate deal should surface at Euribor plus 95bp. BNP and JP Morgan should finally launch French steelmaker Usinor's debut. Pricing on the Eu300m plus seven year transaction is expected to be around 90bp over Euribor. Stagecoach will follow up its $500m 10 year Yankee with a Eu300m to Eu500m five year bond. Pricing at a generous Euribor plus 120bp is anticipated following the pricing of Euribor plus 175bp needed to get the Yankee away, despite S&P's upgrading of the firm to BBB+. Goldman Sachs is set to launch Polo Ralph Lauren's seven year issue of up to Eu300m next week at Euribor plus 90bp to 100bp. Staples' Eu150m to Eu200m five year issue via Goldman and Salomon is still awaited, while more news on Escada's delayed Eu100m five year via HypoVereinsbank should emerge soon. The sterling sector rallied sharply on Thursday following the Bank of England's 25bp rate rise, despite the fact that the move had been priced into the market. But, widening swap spreads earlier in the week enabled the EIB to successfully tap two of its long end issues at interesting levels for UK investors and to see the bonds snapped up as spreads rapidly started to contract on Thursday. In contrast, securitised deals for Trafford Park (£600m) and BUPA (£200m), both targeting the long end, had to be pulled due to lack of investor interest. Clerical Medical's inaugural debt issue, a £150m subordinated 20 year non-call perpetual, was satisfactorily placed at 260bp over the Gilt. And the firm's parent, the Halifax, will raise £250m and Eu500m of 10 year non-call five capital securities in the near future. Lehman Brothers and Warburg Dillon Read will be roadshowing the deal next week.
November 05, 1999