Big Bang in Japan and the subsequent creation of a low interest rate environment, has encouraged cash-rich investors to consider all kinds of alternative products in their search for yield. Since traditional sources like bank deposits can't offer a good return, retail investors are looking elsewhere. Their niche in the Euro-MTN market has already begun to develop, with a focus on structured notes. The Japanese household sector has an estimated ¥1.2 trillion ($10.83 billion) in financial assets. Optimistic MTN dealers like to think that an increasing proportion of this wealth will find its way into Euro-MTNs. But it is debatable just how much of this will materialize. MTNWare shows that total yen issuance of Euro-MTNs in 1998 was ¥9.04 trillion ($69.28 billion). The market will rise by almost 20% of it sees an extra 1% if the household assets, as some dealers suggest. An increase is generally anticipated, but given the amount of alternative investment instruments opening up to individuals, it is ambitious to think that Euro-MTNs would increase to this extent in the coming year. The buying power of rich, Japanese individuals, the so-called mom and pop investors, is attracting attention from more than just local Japanese brokerages. Reiko Hayashi, Euro-MTN desk at Paribas in Tokyo, says: "People outside the market aren't aware of just how rich Japanese retail investors are. It's a suffering economy but some people still have a huge amount to invest." And these investors are becoming more valuable buyers of Euro-MTNs as the profile of the Japanese investor base changes. The spotlight has turned on them and on regional investors as additional sources of cash, since the market is no longer dominated by institutional buyers. David Bourne, associate director of Euro-MTNs at Deutsche Bank in Tokyo, says: "Big institutional buyers are less active in MTNs than they have been for a long time. It's tough to generalize but they are still a bit shell-shocked from the Asian crisis. They're looking for liquidity so they're more active in bond markets." However, it is difficult to pinpoint exactly what trades are being sold to retail, especially since all dealers are fiercely protective of their distribution channels and sales leads in Japan. What is clear is that the issue size is always small and term lengths are always short, usually between six months and three years. The trades aren't publicly announced and coupons of about 4% are common. Although retail investors in Japan got their fingers burned with structures about eighteen months ago, they are once again focusing on structured products. Issuers wanting to tap into this cash pool will need to consider products more risky than plain vanilla. Equity-, FX- and index-linked products are in demand and call options are also popular. Bourne, at Deutsche Bank, explains why a growing feature of the market since March this year is demand for equity- and Nikkei-linked notes. He says: "There's a lot of retail participation in this as those investors will pay an above market coupon. The retail sector needs to get some kind of pick-up on savings since bank deposits earn little or nothing. Such investors tend to stick with what they know, so equity- and foreign exchange-linked products are popular." However, Kirsty Traill, director at Daiwa Europe, points to the fact that the Nikkei has been increasing over the last six months and that this automatically leads to more demand for equity-linked products. Demand seems to seesaw between equity- and FX-linked notes. She says: "The retail niche has always been there. I would say it's the sector that's changed the least. Because the Nikkei was volatile or dropping, FX-linked trades into retail Japan were popular for the last three years. It generally comes and goes with FX volatilities." As with other retail investors, equity linkage is appealing to Japanese buyers because it is relatively familiar to them. They can benefit from the flexibility of Euro-MTNs by receiving tailor-made notes. Dealers can create a made-to-measure product with ticket sizes, term dates, and linkage to specific stocks. Hayashi, at Paribas, says: "Equity-linked notes are easy for them to understand and give quite high yield. It's usually too expensive for retail investors to buy stocks in for example Sony, but this type of bond allows them access to equity in small tickets which they can afford." Retail investors are willing to pay up to get the structure they want since the alternative returns available to all of them are so low, leading to excess liquidity in the sector. This is good news for borrowers ready to issue the right paper. Borrowers like Orix and Taisei Corp have been able to mop up some of this excess liquidity and raise funds at extremely tight spreads. In January this year, Orix's four-year retail-targeted paper traded at 75 basis points over JPY Libor. By July the spread had come in by 50 basis points. Accessing the Japanese retail investor base requires strong distribution capabilities developed from solid relationships with individual buyers. Japanese dealers like Nomura Securities and the newly-merged Daiwa and Sumitomo Bank have their own retail outlets. This gives them greater control over where paper can be distributed and the ability to cope with large volumes. However, with the collapse of so many of Japan's own banks over the last two years, the opportunity has arisen for foreign dealers to step in. Mergers such as Merrill Lynch's with Yamaichi Securities and Nikko Securities' with Salomon Smith Barney, have enabled international houses to gain local distribution. Morgan Stanley Dean Witter (MSDW) and Sanwa Bank (Sanwa) are the latest banks to collaborate on development and distribution strategy of investment trust products. They signed an agreement to cooperate in providing retail asset management services through Sanwa's distribution channels in August, this year. And Deutsche Bank has formed a joint venture with Kokusai Securities in asset management. They have cooperated on certain retail targeted equity-linked bonds. Non-Japanese houses, without domestic alliances, have to sell to local brokers first, which in turn sell to the retail buyers. They may not get the lion's share of the business but they can devote attention to individual needs. Bourne, at Deutsche Bank, explains: "We don't have our own distribution network in Japan. Therefore we have developed relationships with small retail brokerages. We can source the bonds internationally and they can place them locally." Hayashi, at Paribas, believes the reputations of the brokers Paribas uses are crucial to its success at selling indirectly into retail Japan. She says: "You need good name recognition and stable growth to sell into retail Japan. Image is very important. You also need a good underwriter with good Japanese contacts." But selling into retail Japan is not a cut-and-dried process for issuers. Firstly, prospective issuers must be approved by the Ministry of Finance and comply with strict criteria. The ministry is a safeguard for retail investors. It decides on the creditworthiness of borrowers. The lengthy and expensive legal process makes marketing difficult for dealers. Traill, at Daiwa Europe, says: "Issuers selling to retail Japan are having a great time. It's definitely a niche. But it takes a lot of time, effort and expense to organise. So some people think it's not worth it. There's a lot of documentation issues to resolve but we've seen a steady stream of issuers look into it." The restrictions on issuing into retail Japan mean that the same borrowers appear in the market again and again. For example, Eksportfinans, Svensk Exportkredit, Venantius and the World Bank. But others are also seeing demand. Statens Bostadsfinansierings (Sbab), the Swedish public corporate which finances government housing loans, is rated A2 by Moody's and A+ by Standard & Poor's. Sbab's two yen deals done between January 1 and September 1 this year, both had currency-linked redemptions, according to MTNWare. The ¥3 billion deals had four and five month terms. The growth of the retail sector looks set to take-off over the next year, as terms on other investments fall due. For example, the yucho or postal savings redemptions are approaching. A large proportion of these funds will be invested elsewhere, including, either directly or indirectly, in Euro-MTNs. Unless there is a significant glich in the market, Euro-MTNs should fare well in competition with other financial instruments for retail investor attention. Their inherent flexibility to accommodate size, structure and term compares favourably to alternatives such as Samurai. Traill, at Daiwa Europe, says: "Investors will have more choice as to what to do with their investments as they come up for renewal. But we're not at that stage yet. MTNs will play a key part in that because they can be tailor-made to individual buyers' needs. Securities houses can give retail investors the exact size and structure they want without having to do a block Eurobond or Samurai." On average, a sixty year-old Japanese person has savings of about $150,000 (¥16.5 million). This cash should be readily available for buying small-sized tickets of Euro-MTNs. The right market just needs to be nurtured.
August 04, 2000