Bryan Johanson, portfolio manager with C.S. McKee & Co., expects Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) to move tighter by late October, when he predicts the Treasury to announce that it will stop issuing long term TIPS. Depending on the break-even inflation rate at that time, Johanson would consider selling his entire TIPS allocation, $104 million (8% of the portfolio), or reducing it to 5%, or $39 million. The inflation break-even is the difference in yields between nominal Treasuries and TIPS. If the break-even moves up to 1.80%, the firm will move to the 5% allocation. If the break-even goes above 2%, he will liquidate the entire holding to take profits. Right now, the break-even is at 1.56%.
September 02, 2001