The United States, asset-backed borrowers and single-A rated issuers are just a few of the big winners in MTNWeek's second annual CP dealer survey. The best and the worst issuers are also named as all of the market's leading dealers were polled. Overall there is a sense of optimism over the way the Euro-CP market has performed in the past 12 months. But dealers are also wary that the lack of progress on same-day settlement could stunt the market's growth in the 2002. GROWTH AREAS In last year's survey dealers picked out Europe as the issuer nationality that would experience the most growth in 2000-2001. But in this year's survey the US comes out on top with a dominating 70% of the votes cast. European issuers did receive several votes and some dealers were even more specific, naming French and German issuers as those to watch in the coming 12 months. The fall in optimism for European issuers seems to be down to regulatory barriers. As one dealer comments: "French issuance has been strong in 2001 and there have been high volumes. But all European issuers will be handicapped until there is same-day settlement in the Euro-CP market." The growth of asset-backed (AB) programmes continues. It scooped 54% of the vote for growth in issuer type - a 10% increase on last year. Corporates are again hot on the tail of ABCP facilities, claiming 30% of the votes. A1/P1-rated issuers are the ones dealers believe investors will be looking at in 2002. They won 36% of the vote, followed by A2/P2 issuers with 29% and A1+ with 14%. One dealer explains the move to this rating group by saying: "Investors are becoming more credit aware and are requiring enhanced yields." THE MARKET IN 2001 Dealers named a wide range of trends that were evident in the past 12 months, from increased credit focus to the overall growth in outstandings and even that there are now too many dealers in the market. The resurgence of yen in the CP market was the biggest story to come out of these results, receiving 21% of votes cast. And all dealers who answered the survey believed the Japanese investor base was now either very important or quite important to the Euro-CP market. Figures from CPWare support the survey's findings. Yen issuance in the Euro-CP market from January 1 to October 25 of this year totals $66.88 billion off 1,316 trades compared to $15.28 billion off 594 trades in the same period in 2000. One dealer goes as far as to comment: "The Japanese are currently the single biggest investors in non-A1/P1 credits in the whole Euro-CP market." Others are now experiencing the knock-on effects of September 11, with one dealer in particular seeing increased interest in global programmes. Another comments: "Since September 11, we have seen more US CP issuers approaching our market as an alternative source of funding." One of the clearest trends of the last 12 months has been the decrease in the number of new programmes being signed. Sixty-two new programmes were signed by this time last year, whereas just 36 shelves have been set-up so far in 2001. Dealers have various explanations for this fall. Some look for a logical explanation, with one saying: "As the market has been in existence since 1986, the majority of household names already have some form of CP facility." Others focus on the global economic slowdown, particularly in the US. One dealer comments: "With slower growth you inevitably get more long-term borrowing." And quite a few dealers cite the dwindling impact of the euro. One says: "The creation of the euro acted as a catalyst to new programmes and entrants in 1999-2000. This boom has died down and has not had the same effect in 2001." Dealers were also asked which sector they believed could help to redress this fall. Fifty-three percent name the ABCP sector as the key to any recovery. INVESTORS The survey asked dealers how they thought the investor profile would change over the next 12 months. One dealer predicts: "The major trend in the next few months at least will be towards higher rated credits." Most echo this view that the market will become more credit sensitive. One says: "All investors are going to have to get used to credit. There are not many high-grade corporates left and there are fewer by the day." Some others see increased activity from money funds. As in last year's survey, the failed change of the UCITS directive is a major issue as it limits the impact that French, Italian and Spanish issuers can have on the Euro-CP market. One trader says: "Although I cannot foresee major changes now, a change in the UCITS directive could change the investor base dramatically." Another comments: "A prospective UCITS change may allow funds to take more risk." ISSUERS AT&T Corp beat off all competition to emerge as the issuer that has made best use of its Euro-CP programme in the last 12 months. With 20% of the vote, the US telecom company received acclaim from many of the top dealing houses. One explained the choice saying: "AT&T initially set out to raise around $2 billion by year end when it launched in June. It issued that amount in about 10 days, increased the size of the program and currently has about $5.5 billion in the market. The reason for this is that it is extremely investor friendly and does not discriminate against smaller transactions. This has appealed to many investors." Another says: "Despite being on watch by both main agencies, being in an unstable sector, it was able to show flexibility in terms of pricing and maturity to capitalize on what the market had to offer. This was especially true in Japan. It moved very quickly to have the programme amended to respond to demand for longer maturities. It used the dealer panel very cleverly, providing particular incentives to the dealers while maintaining a strong element of competition." Equalling its second position of last year, DePfa did improve its percentage of the vote to 20% from 16.66%. RWE came third. Results in the dreaded category of most difficult issuer were less clear cut. Endesa, Kommunekredit and TotalFinaElf all polled 20% of the vote. Inflexibility seemed to be at the centre of most traders' complaints. Also receiving votes were ABN Amro Bouwfonds, Telefonica and Volkswagen. In Volkswagen's defence, they also received votes as one of the best issuers, with one dealer saying: "As the Euro-CP market's largest corporate borrower, they get their paper done every day in a range of currencies and maturities." DISSAPOINTMENTS Despite the many success stories of the past year, dealers found many aspects of the market to be unsatisfactory. "The biggest disappointment of the year for us has to be the large amount of downgrades, which have given a very unsettled feel to the market," says one dealer. Another says: "The tremendously slow process of harmonization across EU countries with regards to local rules being transformed into EU law has been disappointing." The Euro-CP market's lack of growth is largely due to regulatory constraints. The failure to accelerate same-day settlement was almost unanimously the dealers' biggest frustration. This is despite significant advances made in the past year by Euroclear and Issuelink. And dealers could not be more split on when they believe same-day settlement will become a reality across the market. Of those polled, 36% believe it will be within the next 12 months, but 43% believe it will take at least another two years. The remaining 21% said that it will take even longer. One says: "The fact that same-day settlement has been poorly received by the investor base is discouraging. Increased demand from investors would undoubtedly increase the pace of change by issuers and their IPAs." According to most traders, it is the IPAs, rather than the issuers, that are finding it extremely difficult to guarantee same-day settlement at competitive prices. Another dealer recognises this setback but refuses to be downbeat saying: "The new European Pre-Issuance Messaging (EPIM) system is addressing the problem quickly by pressurizing the IPAs to facilitate this settlement. I'm very optimistic!"
October 26, 2001