A buy-side and sell-side analyst are divided on whether Lyondell Chemical Company's planned purchase of Occidental Petroleum's 29.5% stake in Equistar Chemicals will benefit Lyondell bondholders. And, in an unusual turn of events, it is the sell-sider who is the bear. "Because any significant decrease in Lyondell's debt depends on an increase in Equistar's currently depressed levels of profitability, which may be a long time in the future, I'd not be buying bonds on this news," says Mark Hughes, head of European high-yield research at BNP Paribas. He argues that, given the almost six times leverage on a senior secured basis, Lyondell's 9.875% notes of '07 (Ba3/BB) should be bid at 95.625. Last Tuesday, they were some four points higher, at a 99.5 bid, two points higher than they were before the deal was announced.
February 10, 2002