Bonnie Mitra, portfolio manager at AMR Investment Services, will rotate 8% of the firm's portfolio, or $400 million, from mortgage-backed securities into an equal mix of agencies and high-quality corporates. The move, not triggered by any particular event, is a defensive play in anticipation of rising interest rates that adversely affects extension-risk sensitive MBS, says Mitra. He predicts higher interest rates by year-end as a result of an economic recovery stimulated by a fiscal package. He also sees an end to the Treasury rally once the uncertainty over a war with Iraq is lifted and the conflict resolved. By the end of the year, the 10-year Treasury yield will increase to a 4.5-5% range, he predicts. Last Monday, the 10-year Treasury yielded 3.95%.
February 02, 2003