Nomura

Indian bond issuers have started 2019 with a bang, enjoying the benefits of an optimistic dollar debt market. But with a national election looming — and with no guarantees that credit markets will not take a turn for the worse — it will be far from plain sailing. Morgan Davis reports.

Italy and the European Investment received combined orders of over €50bn in the euro public sector market on Tuesday before what could be an even more uncertain period in Europe, with the UK parliament set to vote on prime minister Theresa May’s Brexit withdrawal agreement later in the evening.

All eyes were on Sunac China Holdings on Thursday when it executed a deal that was six times covered at its peak. Despite the competition, Redco Properties Group also managed to walk away with a new bond, thanks to the flexibility of the 364-day format.

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Public sector dollar issuance has had a slower start to the year than usual — in part because of super strong conditions in other currencies — but SSA bankers are confident the strength of the deals that did come this week will boost the pipeline.

The sterling market for public sector borrowers is enjoying its best ever start to a year thanks to superlative conditions, Sonia linked debuts and a UK parliamentary vote on Brexit next week.

Sterling issuance from non-UK public sector borrowers has made by far its strongest ever start to a calendar year, with borrowers and bankers citing liquidity-laden investors and a crucial parliamentary vote on Brexit next week as factors behind the rush. Council of Europe Development Bank (CEB) and FMS Wertmanagement added to the feast on Thursday, while Inter-American Development Bank will bring yet another trade this Friday.

Public sector borrowers might switch some of their attention away from a rampant euro market towards dollars, said SSA bankers, after the Inter-American Development Bank and Caisse des Dépôts et Consignations brought strong trades in the currency on Wednesday.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development on Wednesday became the third public sector borrower to issue an inaugural Sonia-linked bond in 2019, with the deal marking the borrower’s largest sterling bond to date.

The European Investment Bank and Bank Nederlandse Gemeenten showed the strength of the dollar market on Tuesday as they sparked the sector into life for 2019 with benchmarks offering minimal concession. Another pair of SSAs are hoping to emulate that success on Wednesday.

The International Finance Corp sold its joint biggest sterling bond by volume with its debut Sonia-linked bond on Tuesday, adding to the flurry of trades in the format since the start of the year. But the Sonia rush is “not over yet”, according to a banker at one of the leads, with a few more on the horizon before the UK parliament votes on Theresa May's Brexit deal next week.