Italian Sovereign

US President-elect Donald Trump left market participants dumbfounded by saying that the dollar is too strong just a few days before his inauguration on Friday — a position he won after a campaign promising infrastructure spending and tax cuts. But while Trump’s ability to disrupt markets is likely to be a feature of the next four years, the start of an unwinding of the ‘Trump trade’ could help public sector borrowers bring 10 year deals to a red hot dollar market, writes Craig McGlashan.

Euro bonds at the 10 year maturity and beyond have proven difficult so far in 2017, but a strong performance from the European Investment Bank may have shown other issuers what it takes to pick up size at long maturities.

Italy on Wednesday produced an almost carbon copy trade of Belgium’s 10 year euro benchmark from earlier this week, printing €6bn as its curve tightened in the background — although with a longer dated bond.

Italy is set to kick off its syndicated programme for the year with a September 2033 euro benchmark, as the sovereign brushed off a downgrade from DBRS late last week.

Portugal found the best possible medicine to a rising fever in its bond yields by building a large order book on Wednesday for its first syndication of 2017. Attention now turns to Italy, which faces a crucial rating review by DBRS on Friday.

Italy’s new prime minister Paolo Gentiloni has the opportunity to provide a strong boost to Italian bonds if he acts swiftly, according to Pioneer Investments.

Italy and the wider eurozone periphery this week rode out the latest vote against the political status quo of 2016, as government bonds performed well despite the resignation of Italy’s prime minister Matteo Renzi after losing a constitutional reform referendum over the weekend.

The market was already expecting that the European Central Bank would announce an extension to quantitative easing — and be tight-lipped on tapering — at its next governing council meeting on Thursday. The resignation of Italy's prime minister Matteo Renzi following defeat in a constitutional referendum on Sunday now means the central bank has little choice but to offer some more easing.

The public sector bond market rode out the widely expected ‘no’ result of the Italian constitutional referendum on Sunday night, as bankers looked at a possible silver lining in the form of a more dovish European Central Bank meeting on Thursday.

Rumours of increased European Central Bank support have failed to take pressure off Italian sovereign credit default swaps, despite a rally on Tuesday, with the country resuming its widening divergence from European peers on Wednesday ahead of this weekend’s referendum.

The Italian referendum on December 4 has been lurking in SSA bankers' diaries as a dangerous risk event but, on Tuesday, rumours of enhanced European Central Bank support led to a rally in Italian government paper.

Italy’s bond yields hit their highest levels at auction since June 2015 at the country’s final bond sale before Sunday's constitutional reform referendum that could lead to the resignation of prime minister Matteo Renzi.