Greece

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Greece’s comeback bond this week should build on its already strong secondary performance, said SSA bankers, paving the way for the sovereign to bring more deals before its scheduled bail-out exit in August 2018. Bankers were quick to point out that while the deal resembled its last comeback trade in April 2014, much has changed since — including its cost of borrowing.

A hedge fund manager who bought some of Greece’s comeback €3bn five year bonds on Tuesday believes that the paper will trade “like a rates instrument” rather than credit, despite the bonds being marketed at an absolute yield level more akin to the high yield corporate market.

Greece’s return to bond issuance on Tuesday drew praise from bankers across the SSA sector, who are now eagerly waiting to see whether the book — much smaller than its previous comeback bond in April 2014 — trumps that older deal for quality.

Some may question whether Greece should have waited until after the summer before bringing its second comeback bond in three years, but the issuer and the banks should be applauded for a job well done. Now the focus must turn to debt relief.

Greece is set to make its much rumoured return to the debt markets this week, bringing a new five year bond alongside a switch and tender offer for its original comeback issue, an April 2019 sold three years ago. Bankers away from the trade expect the trade to go well, despite coming just as the summer slowdown is set to start.

The European Financial Stability Facility is set to enjoy enviable conditions when it comes to the euro market next week — during which the Greek sovereign could also make an appearance. Demand at the long end has been particularly strong due to a yield spike last week, which KfW and SCNF Réseau have since taken advantage of.

Public sector bankers have backed claims by Greece’s finance minister that the country could return to the capital markets this year “with or without QE”. The fact that another periphery sovereign, Spain, was able to print a stellar trade on Tuesday despite comments by European Central Bank president Mario Draghi sending markets in a tizzy about the possible end of QE further bolstered the statement, bankers added. Craig McGlashan reports.

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Greece’s bond yields tumbled to their lowest levels in years after Moody’s upgraded the sovereign last week, and talk of a second market comeback is of the more optimistic kind than just a few months ago. But Greece’s government — which wants to return to bond issuance this year — and its creditors would do well to remember that we’ve been here before. As always, Greece will never enjoy a full market presence without some real debt relief.

News that the International Monetary Fund and eurozone finance ministers were unable to agree on Greek debt relief has sent yields on the beleaguered sovereign’s 10 year debt rocketing upwards.

The Greek government wants to return to the bond markets this year as soon as its latest round of bail-out negotiations ends — something that moved a step forward this week after the country agreed a deal with its creditors on a range of fiscal and structural reforms. But one look at where its outstanding debt is trading should make the government think twice before rushing back to the capital markets.