Germany

The mortgage backed Pfandbriefe of four German Landesbanks are at risk of losing their triple-A ratings, after Moody’s lowered the senior unsecured ratings of the issuers by up to three notches on Wednesday.

European covered bond markets continue to look in poor shape as the macro sovereign backdrop dramatically deteriorates. This suggests that Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s euro denominated benchmark is likely to remain on hold for the time being. But that should not delay Westpac, which is planning to open books on Thursday afternoon.

The euro covered bond market has begun to show signs of life, a full five trading days after the formal start of the ECB purchase programme. Crédit Mutuel Arkéa will price a rare dual tranche tap later on Wednesday.

While Westpac and Commonwealth Bank of Australia headed to the US on Monday to market debut covered bonds, ANZ has started meeting investors in Europe, after finishing a US roadshow last week.

The covered bond market waited in vain on Tuesday for the start of ECB purchase programme (CBPP.2) buying in the secondary market. Despite moderate sovereign tightening, peripheral covered bond spreads continued to trade well inside government bonds, particularly in Italy where it is increasingly doubtful that issuers will be able to bring benchmark deals against outstanding curves.

News of the ECB’s latest covered bond purchase programme has failed to move secondary spreads, analysts and syndicate officials told The Cover on Monday. Meanwhile the situation in peripheral jurisdictions continues to deteriorate, making the programme’s success all the more contingent upon concrete political resolution in the individual countries, and Europe as a whole.

Activity in the secondary market has been focussed on France where several banks report Street and real money interest – even as the French government bond spread to Germany hit new spread wides. Meanwhile, syndicate officials cast doubt on whether the ECB’s purchase programme will materially benefit Italy and Spain.

Euro jumbo issuance since August fell by a third compared with last year, but a look at the redemption calendar for this quarter and the first quarter of 2012 shows that funding pressures will not wait for Europe to fix itself. The ECB purchase programme may help some borrowers plug funding holes, but with only €40bn at its disposal, not all issuers will be able to rely on the ECB to refinance assets.

The impact of the ECB’s second purchase programme could be lessened considerably by renewed volatility in the markets. Equity and fixed income indices plummeted on Tuesday morning, wiping out at a stroke the positive reaction seen at the end of last week to the European summit meetings that had attempted to inject some confidence back into markets.

A major covered bond investor talks to The Cover about the ECB’s purchase programme and what could follow. He does not think it will adopt a needs-based approach and suspects that a prospective spread tightening will be short-lived.

Activity has once again shifted into dollars, with European investors paralysed by a lack of detail on the upcoming ECB covered bond purchase programme and a resolution of the sovereign debt crisis. Meanwhile Canadian banks issue dollar deals with ease, and Australia’s big four could be swayed into taking the same route for their respective debuts, said syndicate officials.

Bank Austria has followed BPCE successfully raising €500m with a five year public sector backed covered bond that priced at the tight end of guidance on the back of an exceptionally granular book. The decision to price ahead of next week’s announcement on the purchase programme caught some bankers by surprise. But with significant central bank demand in the book, it is doubtful whether there would have been much to gain from postponing.