Middle East Bonds

The Gulf region has fared well this year, despite the double impact of the coronavirus pandemic and the drop in oil prices, according to Dr Jarmo Kotilaine, chief planning and monitoring officer at Bahrain’s Tamkeen and author of Trials of Resilience: How Covid-19 is driving economic change in the Arab Gulf. Kotilaine believes an expansion of capital markets activity in the region will be a key driver of economic growth in 2021.

With returns on developed market bonds being squeezed as never before, debt analysts are heralding emerging markets as the place for investors to be in 2021. Yet the faster the global economic recovery, the more vulnerable EM fixed income will be to what has often been its downfall: any signal of tighter global liquidity conditions, write Mariam Meskin and Oliver West.

Emerging market bond mandates are continuing into the last month of the year, despite expectations that activity would quieten down after a jam-packed year of issuance. Kuwait’s Burgan Bank and Montenegro are among some of the CEEMEA issuers seeking to take advantage of unfalteringly attractive credit conditions.

Fifty year bonds caught the attention of issuers and investors alike across CEEMEA, especially the Middle East, this year. That will continue in 2021, but investors are not ready to flash their cash indiscriminately.

Rating: Ba3/BB-

Oman, one of only two sub-investment grade sovereign credits in the Gulf region, tapped two of its dollar bonds for $500m this week as it seeks to shore up state finances.

Rating: A1/A/A

The world's largest oil company, Saudi Aramco, on Tuesday raised an $8bn multi-tranche bond, featuring a rare 50 year piece, in only its second entry into debt capital markets. Proceeds from the deal will help it to generate enough cash to fund a dividend of $75bn as oil prices remain under pressure.

A flurry of Gulf issuers was on track on Tuesday to securing last minute bond funding, as investor appetite appeared insatiable for emerging market debt amid a rally that may well be curtailed by the impending US Thanksgiving holiday.

Saudi Aramco, which made its debut in bond markets last year, has mandated banks to arrange a dollar offering, including a 50 year tranche — a maturity only issued once before by a Gulf borrower. According to market players, this is an opportunistic move to grab cash before year-end taking advantage of yield-hungry investors.

French agency Caisse des Dépôts et Consignations finished its 2020 syndicated funding programme with a visit to the Swiss market this week, printing an extremely tight deal through the high quality domestic covered bond curve.

Emerging market issuers have crept back into the small issuance window in international markets after a brief pause for the US elections, with Dubai Islamic Bank and Uzbekistan’s Ipoteka Bank issuing dollar-denominated bonds this week.