South America

Latin American bond bankers expect several new deals to be announced after the May 31 Memorial Day holiday in the US, as borrowers look to get ahead of potential noise regarding the Federal Reserve tapering its policy stimulus. But investors appeared ambivalent this week about the prospect of a wave of new supply.

Chile, Peru and Colombia — previously hailed by EM investors for orthodox economic policymaking — are under pressure amid social unrest and political polarisation. But as the upheaval whirls around them, their credit in the bank with bondholders, after years of impressive debt management, is a major asset.

A majority of shareholders of Peruvian mining company Compañía de Minas Buenaventura have approved a motion to allow the company to sell up to $550m of bonds as it looks to finance a retroactive tax liability.

Political volatility continues to take its toll on the credit ratings of Latin America’s strongest sovereigns, with Peru the latest to suffer a negative outlook as Moody’s predicted the next government will likely face a continuation of the political gridlock that has hampered economic activity over the last four years.

Official and multilateral lenders are taking a lenient stance on perennial defaulter Argentina but bond investors are increasingly sceptical whether the IMF programme that the sovereign says it wants will turn its fiscal position around. Markets are pricing in another default within a few years, despite a rebound in bonds this week, while eccentric policy decisions continue to frustrate bondholders.

Colombia’s credit rating was finally downgraded to sub-investment grade on Wednesday evening, as many had expected it to be. But it was Standard & Poor’s — not Fitch, as most had anticipated — that moved first.

Peruvian mining company Minsur, which will shortly begin operations at a copper project that almost triples its previous size, has signed a loan with two international banks to finance a buy-back of old bonds. The liability management exercise comes as the leading candidate in Peru’s presidential elections said he wanted to raise taxes and royalties on the mining sector, and nationalise the country’s wealth.

Argentine sovereign bonds rallied for a third consecutive day on Tuesday amid expectations that the Paris Club group of official creditors will show leniency over a looming $2.4bn payment. But some in the market saw more value in the country's provincial bonds, and the Province of Buenos Aires hinted after the close that it is edging closer to agreement with its bondholders after more than a year in default.

After Chileans chose the delegates who will draft a new constitution, bond market participants appeared to be taken aback by the centre-right government’s poor performance. Chilean assets across the board slumped, with local rates hit harder than hard currency bonds.

Latin America DCM bankers are gearing up for a calmer period in primary bond markets as first quarter earnings blackout periods near, after two companies jumped on an improving tone at the end of last week to sell rare Friday deals.

Banco Santander Chile has promoted from within to replace its departing head of corporate and investment banking (CIB).

Uruguay, considered the most promising credit story among Latin America's investment grade sovereigns, raised $1.74bn-equivalent in pesos and dollars on Thursday, becoming the first sovereign from the region to issue local currency abroad in 2021 — as it was in 2020.