Ireland

Bank of Ireland has priced its first covered bond in three years, attracting a heavily oversubscribed book that was broad and granular. The deal, that many may have considered impossible only a few weeks ago, pays further testimony to the continued bid for higher yielding assets and represents a strong endorsement of covered bonds.

Bank of Ireland Mortgage Bank looks set to reopen the Irish covered bond market and has appointed joint leads for the first Asset Covered Security since the crisis. With Irish government bonds trading inside Spain’s and Italy’s, the deal should get more competitive funding.

Irish Finance Minister Michael Noonan has rejected a private members’ bill to adopt the Danish balance principle for covered bonds but he will investigate whether some elements of the bill could be rolled out.

SSA and corporate markets were busy on Tuesday, keeping the primary covered bond quiet. But issuance should improve this week as investors filter back from holiday, said bankers, though they warned that as spreads have tightened a long way in a short time the market may widen after the initial flurry of deals.

New Irish insolvency legislation will benefit covered bonds over the long term, according to Moody’s. But as the new law will provide debt forgiveness for mortgage borrowers with unsustainable loans, it could hit Irish cover pools that boast a high percentage of negative equity loans.

Europe’s peripheral covered bond markets are looking over their shoulders after Fitch downgraded Banco Popular Portugal’s covered bonds on Wednesday. This followed downgrades of Greek and Cypriot covered bonds which have left their issuers unable to access emergency ECB repo funding.

Rising unemployment in Spain could hit residential mortgage portfolios, JP Morgan analysts have warned. An increase in non-performing loans would affect Spanish cover pools, while a lack of adequate measures to deal with mortgage losses means subordinated bondholders could be called on to provide additional capital.

Standard and Poor’s brutal six notch downgrade of the Depfa ACS public sector backed covered bonds, from double A to triple B, matches the severity of downgrades that have been seen in several Spanish multi-Cédulas deals. But unlike those deals, this deal was issued by the Irish entity of a German parent bank.

Portuguese and Irish issuers could follow National Bank of Greece and tender covered bonds ahead of the next ECB Long Term Refinancing Operation in February. Even if participation is half that of NBG’s recent buyback operation, the capital increase could make a compelling argument.

Unless sovereign debt market volatility subsides, it seems likely that publicly placed covered bond financing could remain shut for peripheral issuers in 2012, potentially forcing Spanish and Italian banks into the same category as Portuguese and Greek banks which were unable to access the market at all last year.

Stress in bank funding markets, exposure to troubled eurozone sovereign bond markets and moves away from implicit government support have affected the creditworthiness of many global banks. But Standard & Poor’s approach to covered bond ratings means they should remain resilient compared to other agencies.

The concept of liquidity has changed over the course of the financial crisis. Where once it may have been viewed as a free ticket, it is now highly valued — for without liquidity there cannot be a market. Covered bonds are comfortably at the most liquid end of the credit spectrum, but the way they are traded has completely changed since the onset of the financial crisis.