Finland

A UK based covered bond investor spoke to The Cover about the sovereign crisis. He believes the primary market should still be able to function, though the group of issuers capable of doing a deal will be much smaller. Greece is beyond hope, but he says the rest of Europe can still be saved.

Despite a meeting of the world’s central bankers at Jackson Hole Nordea Bank Finland kept the primary market alive on Friday, launching a successful €1.5bn five year deal. Syndicate officials welcomed three consecutive days of primary supply, though market conditions have deteriorated since a trio of well received benchmark trades on Thursday. Secondary liquidity still leaves much to be desired, they said, and has not been helped by the attractive premiums offered by the latest issues.

French covered bonds have widened in the secondary market following concern that the sovereign could lose its triple-A rating. Meanwhile traders reported buying in Spanish and Italian covered bonds as investors move out of government paper.

Finland’s OP Mortgage Bank came to market on Friday with the first seven year Scandinavian covered bond of the year, pricing a no-grow Eu1bn trade. Despite the bank’s prime Scandinavian collateral, the transaction fell just short of Eu1bn of orders.

After more than a week without primary euro issuance, BNP Paribas and OP Mortgage Bank on Friday broke ranks and opened books on 10 a year and seven year deal respectively. BNP closed books on a well received Eu2bn transaction by mid-morning, while execution on OP’s Eu1bn no-grow deal was less straightforward.

The Greek parliament met market expectations yesterday and approved the austerity bill, ushering in a period of mild relief however temporary it turns out to be. Secondary market flows picked up, particularly for Spanish cédulas which showed stronger buying interest. But covered bond syndicate officials do not expect a long window for primary issuance. CRH and OP bank have been quick to take advantage of the more positive mood with the former raising Eu1bn of 11 year funding via a tap and the latter mandating leads for a seven year to be priced tomorrow.

Covered bond bankers expect the Greek parliament to approve austerity measures in today’s vote, but even if that happens, they do not expect much of a relief rally. If the measures are not approved then it’s likely that the consequences will be catastrophic.

Issuers are waiting for some better news out of Greece before deciding whether to press on with transactions, despite most receiving strong interest during roadshows. After selling in the secondary market on Thursday, sovereign spreads on Friday tightened on rumours of an aid package for Greece. But with market sentiment yo-yoing from one day to the next, any window for issuance before the summer lull is likely to be narrow, and perhaps too risky for first time euro borrowers such as ANZ Bank.

Covered bond analysts have turned their attention to rising house prices in Scandinavia, following a report by Standard & Poor’s, which warned that rising private sector debt to GDP levels, fuelled by increased mortgage borrowing, could present a danger to banks and their assets in the event of a severe economic downturn.

There were few indications that a success was on the cards, given that Sampo’s Eu1bn ten year struggled and that market volatility had scared off other issuance this week but Aktia Real Estate Mortgage Bank’s Eu500m five year trade on Wednesday attracted enough investor interest to warrant an increase.

Aktia Real Estate Mortgage Bank defied difficult market conditions on Wednesday to build a twice covered book for an intended Eu500m five year trade, which allowed the borrower to increased the deal size to Eu600m. The result stands in contrast with fellow Finnish issuer Sampo Housing Loan Bank, which found the going much tougher on Tuesday for its Eu1bn ten year trade.

Sampo Housing Loan Bank sold a Eu1bn 10 year transaction on Tuesday, which despite high credit and cover pool quality priced at the wide end of guidance. Syndicate officials pointed to a rise in rates and general aversion to risk among investors as two factors that held the transaction back.