Central Bank of Tunisia (Tunisia) surprised many market players when it closed a euro225 million ($234.5 million) 10-year fixed rate trade on August 2, this year. Sceptics believed the long maturity from a triple-B credit would never sell, particularly in a spread widening environment. And some European investors did pull out. But for those riding the credit curve Tunisia is an appealing option. With its investment grade Baa3 programme rating from Moody's and BBB- from Standard & Poor's, it has an edge over other emerging market borrowers. But Tunisia found it difficult convincing some European borrowers of its credit-worthiness. The pricing of its first trade was 280 basis points over 10-year Bunds, although this tightened in the secondary market to around 270 basis points. The lead bookrunners, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter (MSDW) and Merrill Lynch, which is also the arranger, struggled to fill their books. And a 144A option was hastily added as they looked to US investors, already familiar with Tunisia from its Yankee bond issuance, to make up the remaining 30the account. Nabil Menai, vice-president, at Merrill Lynch, says: "US investors know Tunisia well and are comfortable with this type of risk. Also they are keen to diversify their portfolios away from South America and Central Europe." Tunisia issued eight bonds between 1994 and 1997 in the Yankee and Samurai markets. The MTN issue was the first in the Euromarket. Darius Ahmed-Nejad, debt capital markets, at MSDW, says: "It was a classic benchmark transaction in terms of selling a new credit story. Many European investors were not familiar with the issuer's credit prior to the transaction, and market conditions were challenging at that time, so it did well to achieve the level it did." But Ahmed-Nejad admits the issuer's demand for a long maturity did cause problems. He says: "Tunisia can achieve aggressive funding levels in the five- to seven-year loan markets. The bond market provides 10-year funding levels, which the syndicated loan market does not. It involves a bit more credit work for a 10-year offering, but the success of the issue demonstrated it was do-able." Menai, at Merrill Lynch, says: "Investors in the Euromarket don't like long maturities, they don't have the same appetite for risk because the rewards are not there as they are in the US market." But Habib Sfar, director of forex and external finance at Tunisia's Central Bank, considers Tunisian paper is a safe gamble. He says: "Tunisia is the only country in North Africa with investment grade ratings. It offers good diversification for investors who buy its paper. And Tunisia is in the Mediterranean basin so it has the benefit of close proximity and tight relationships with Europe." Ahmed-Nejad, at MSDW, says: "Tunisia has a very compelling credit story. This, combined with the fact it is a rare issuer in the Euro-MTN market, makes it a very attractive investment. Many investors have credit lines open for Tunisia because it isn't coming to the markets that often." Tunisia has a comparatively small funding requirement for a sovereign. It hopes to raise between euro400 million and euro500 million in 1999. Republic of Lebanon signed in March 1999 and already has $525 million outstanding. Tunisia signed its $1 billion facility on July 2 1999. Sfar, at Tunisia, explains it was set up for convenience. He says: "Market volatility over the past two years has meant fewer windows for issuance. With the MTN facility we have the documents ready in place for when there is a formal need for government funding." Sfar continues saying: "Tunisia needs to raise more before the end of the year but it hasn't yet been decided in what form. We have other sources of funds open in the loan markets or we could issue another bond. It is important to be present in different markets." Tunisia's debut issue off its Euro-MTN programme was a plain vanilla note but the issuer insists it is open to structures. Though Sfar, at Tunisia, says private placements are not a priority. Ahmed-Nejad, at MSDW says: "This is a new issuer in the Euro-MTN market. Someone new doesn't start with fancy structures. It will take things step by step. And anyway the straight market is very good at the moment so there was no particular incentive for a complex structure." Tunisia's is one of only a handful of African issuers in the Euro-MTN market but its successful trade could pave the way for other African sovereigns looking to diversify. Sfar, at Tunisia, says: "Tunisia hopes that its successful issue will encourage African borrowers, like Morocco and Egypt, to look towards the Euromarket for funding." Yet Danielle Coolen-Prentice, head of funding, at African Development Bank, is sceptical about how economical such funding would be for African borrowers. She says: "African issuers that come to the international markets without a guarantor are paying a high price for that. And without investment grade ratings issuance will be very difficult. The Euromarket in particular is very expensive right now." But Tunisia doesn't think it will have any problems finding investors in the Euromarket and believes it will continue to achieve good levels. Sfar, at Tunisia, says: "Spreads in the Euromarket have widened since the crises in Russia and Argentina, but for a first issue in a new market, Tunisia was pleased with the level. We got cheaper funding than some borrowers with higher credit ratings. And the range and quality of investors was very good." Tunisia plans further privatisation and increased liberalisation of its economy. Government figures report 5.5:rowth in 1999, and Standard & Poor's outlook is stable. Menai, at Merrill Lynch, thinks the issuer will stand apart from others in emerging markets. He says: "Tunisia has a well diversified economy which is doing well. Its never defaulted or restructured its debt. It also has strong connections with Europe through its EU trade agreement. Investors know this and have strong confidence in the issuer."
August 04, 2000