On September 9 this year, the Polish government gave the go ahead for Cedel and Euroclear to settle trades denominated in zloty. It is a breakthrough for issuers and investors wanting exposure to the currency, since discussions have been in the pipeline for over a year. Dealers predict that with a more straightforward trading process now in place, investors will soon be grabbing opportunities for yield pick-up in the sector. First to take advantage of the relaxation in the law was European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), the most active borrower in zloty so far this year. Within weeks of the announcement it had issued two Z250 million ($60.91 million) fixed rate trades, lead managed by TD Securities (TD). They were the first pure zloty notes enabling investors to get direct access to the currency. Prior to this, non-Polish investors could not hold zloty outside Poland. All zloty trades were synthetic, that is, trades were linked to zloty rates, but interest, principal payments and settlement were all transacted in other currencies. Zloty is a relatively small sector with $784.48 million outstanding off 27 trades this year, according to MTNWare. But most dealers agree this regulatory step forward will dramatically open up the market. Olivier Jalouneix, head of Euro-MTNs at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter (MSDW), believes it will encourage more investors to experiment. He says: "Clearing and settlement impediments always slow down issuance. The easier a currency is to trade, the more investors will feel comfortable getting involved." Yet Lourens de Beer, director of local markets at Westdeutsche Landesbank Girozentrale (WestLB), is uncertain that pure zloty trades will be snapped up. He says: "Now that notes can be fully settled in zloty it will be interesting to see if that becomes the dominant trend. Our investors have, in the past, preferred to settle their Polish notes in euros or dollars to avoid the FX settlement risk." TD is the leading dealer of zloty MTNs, this year. Edward Mizuhara, vice-president, debt syndicate at TD, explains one reason for zloty demand. He says: "In comparison to Czech koruna, where rates have fallen over the past two years, zloty offers an attractive yield premium and there has been a fair amount of interest. A number of investors have switched out of sectors that have appeared to have run their convergence plays, such as drachma and koruna, into zloty." But to date zloty issuance has only been possible for highly-rated credits. The majority of issuance in zloty has been from triple-A supranational borrowers and financials. No single-A or triple-B issuer has ever sold a zloty MTN. Investors taking currency risk won't gamble on credit too. Jalouneix, at MSDW, says: "Obviously with only top borrowers issuing in zloty investors are not taking more credit risk than for a standard Euro-MTN. The risk with the currency-linked note lies in the possibility of a political or economic event in Poland." But de Beer, at WestLB, believes that lower credits will soon be visible too. He says: "I expect to see triple-B borrowers issuing in zloty, but investor appetite is not there at the moment. Investors can get good returns with zloty without looking for more exotic credits. But if spreads tighten, then investors may move down the credit curve." And zloty issuance is investor driven in other ways. Due to the downward slope of the zloty yield curve many investors shy away from long dated paper. Out of EBRD's eight zloty trades in 1999, only two had maturities longer than three years. An official, at EBRD, says: "Zloty has an inverted yield curve so it is easier to sell shorter-dated notes but we are a flexible issuer and not opposed to issuing in the long end." Yet John Vax, managing director, Commerzbank capital markets, in Prague, points to the other side of the coin. He says: "There are investors keen to buy at the long-end. They are interested in convergence plays and if you have this view you want to go as long as possible." Last week, the first Polish issuer Telekomunikacja Polska, signed a $1 billion Euro-MTN programme. It will, no doubt, be the benchmark for Polish corporate issuers. Dealers believe Poland holds potential for new borrowers, although most agree that issuance in zloty would be particularly difficult for them. De Beer, at WestLB, says: "Looking at the experience in South Africa, we have not seen a proliferation of issuers coming to market. Investors who have done their credit work often prefer to go to the domestic market. The risk in zloty is very different to the risk involved with a Polish credit issuing in zloty." And zloty is leading the way for other Eastern European currencies. There has been demand for Slovak koruna, since the EU commission announced it might join Emu in the next phase. In 1998 there was no Slovak koruna MTN issuance, but there have been 10 trades this year, according to MTNWare. Zloty will remain an appealing option for investors seeking enhanced yield, but dramatic growth probably won't be seen until greater economic stability is achieved in Poland or membership of Emu looks more certain. An official, at EBRD, says: "It all depends on market conditions, the zloty is volatile now, but when rates hike again, there will be demand for the currency. There will always be interest now and then when the levels are good."
August 04, 2000