Supranationals have been rushed off their feet this quarter. Strong investor demand from Japan means printing tickets has never been easier and sterling has provided opportunities too, particularly with reopenings. But some dealers say this high will not last. Some supranationals are even hoping the pace will slow down to let them breathe. The third quarter of 2000 is not over yet but issuance from supranationals already stands at $5.37 billion, compared with $3.06 billion in the second quarter (see graph). One supranational that has been particularly busy is International Finance Corp (IFC). It has raised $930.98 million off private trades (MTNWeek criteria) this quarter. IFC has never issued this much in one quarter before. John Borthwick, IFC's chief financial officer, says private placements have taken off in the past year. He says: "Until about a year ago we weren't prepared to look at smaller trades, because it wasn't economic for us, but we are issuing more now. All our small MTN trades are reverse enquiry, and have been structured to meet the needs of particular investors. We are certainly doing more trades than before, including lots of structures into Japan." And issuance into Japan is mainly investor driven. Japanese buyers like issuers with low credit risk, and the triple-A supranationals have good name recognition as well as being first-rate credits. DKB International (DKB) has been the bookrunner off 26 yen issues for supranational borrowers this year. An official at DKB says: "We have seen a few new investors coming into the market that want strong credit but also want a higher yield from well-known names. The supranational issuers are perfect for these investors, especially as they will normally give liquidity and buy back their own paper if there is no market bid. Selling a structured note by IFC to this investor group is a lot easier than lesser known triple-A rated issuers." Other supranationals agree that issuance has increased. Danielle Coolen-Prentice, African Development Bank's head of funding, says that the last few weeks have been exceptionally busy. So far this year the bank has issued 40 trades, all in yen. But Coolen-Prentice suggests there are other reasons for the strong investor demand. She says: "The first five months of 2000 have been quiet mainly for two reasons: there was an overall slowdown because of low interest rates, and Japanese investors closed their books early for Japan's fiscal year end on March 31. And mark-to-market policies were introduced at the end of March. The investors were very cautious early in the new fiscal year since they needed to analyse the impact of this new rule before buying new structured bonds." But yen is not the only currency to attract supranationals. Sterling tops the currency league for trades issued by supranationals in 2000, with $3.42 billion-worth (MTNWeek criteria). Yen comes second with $3.39 billion. Nordic Investment Bank (Nordic) has issued $1.11 billion-worth of sterling trades in 2000. And it issued more this quarter than in any previous quarter. Kari Kukka, head of funding at Nordic, says: "We have been unusually busy and the reason for this activity is the good opportunities, especially in sterling. That market has been nicely alive and we've done two inflation-linked notes, but mostly plain vanilla." Many trades in sterling have been fungible with trades and bonds issued earlier in the year, or even last year. These are very attractive to investors and IFC has issued three such trades this year. Borthwick, at IFC, explains that they give liquidity to buyers. He says: "There have been opportunities in sterling, particularly fungible trades, because it can raise significant volumes in one issue and the costs are good. There's value for investors in having large trades as it provides them with greater liquidity." Gavin Eddy, head of Euro-MTN trading at UBS Warburg, explains why these are so popular: "Sterling trades by supranationals are mainly reopenings. This is driven by the widening of the swap spread." And there are other reasons why supranationals have been busy. Sovereign issuers are generally borrowing less and the triple-A rated landesbanks are fending off threats to their guarantee system. This may push triple-A investors to alternative issuers. Merrill Lynch has been lead dealer off 13 supranational issues this year, according to MTNWare. Dean Fogg, Euro-MTNs at the bank, says: "Strong demand for supranational and sovereign issuers in sterling is due mainly to the lack of issuance from the UK government - due to revenue from the UK telecom auctions, coupled with growth in the economy. And the need from the pension funds for sovereign paper is forcing spreads ever wider." The question now is whether or not the high level of issuance will continue. Some dealers think it is bound to slow down. Eddy, at UBS Warburg, says: "As long as the swap spread remains wide, investor appetite in the UK will be high. But as soon as spreads come back in, this is likely to disappear." And Coolen-Prentice, at African Development Bank, says: "Issuance might drop off a bit. Even if the fourth quarter only sees half the activity I would still be very happy."
September 15, 2000