Jim Paulsen, chief economist and chief investment officer at Wells Capital Management in Minneapolis, is BondWeek's Interest Rate Forecaster of the Year for the second time in three years. Paulsen, who bagged the prize for 1998, says the Federal Reserve's preemptive "war" on what it perceived to be inflation, as well as a little luck, made it easy to call the rate rally that landed him the top slot. He reasons that the Fed's demonstrable concerns about inflation had "talked up" yields to unsustainable levels, and that the year-end rally was merely a healthy and necessary retracement to fair values. Paulsen made his rate calls (see chart) at the beginning of 2000 based largely on the fact that he did not see the ability for companies to pass on substantial price increases for goods and services. "We would have seen some of that in the CPI reports going back at least to mid- to late-1999, and what we saw was actually deflationary," says Paulsen. He admits to a concern that he had guessed wrong about mid-year when the price of a barrel of oil started to spike but he relaxed when he realized it was merely a distribution problem, more than a structural disturbance in the supply-demand equation. He notes that going forward, the price of a barrel of oil was likely to settle into a range between the mid- and upper-$20s, placing it right where it was in the middle of the last decade, when oil fears were practically non-existent. Paulsen sees it as ironic that the one sector of the economy that is arguably most responsible for the white hot GDP growth of the past several years-high-tech-is largely insulated from interest rate gyration, keyed as they are to issues like bandwidth capability and international chip demand. He anticipates it will be "perhaps two, maybe three years" before tech firms will begin to grow again, but until then, he notes, "all the easing in the world won't jump start revenue growth."
January 14, 2001