The Euro-MTN market was destined for an exciting year with the launch of Emu in 1999. And it didn't disappoint. Total non-syndicated issuance grew 8098 and tickets sold in euros exceeded those in dollars and yen by almost $50 billion each. More corporates than ever accessed the investor base and trading began on-line. The market has set itself a high standard to live up to in 2000. Gavin Eddy, executive director, head of Euro-MTNs at Warburg Dillon Read (WDR), sums up the sentiment of the market. He says: "It's been an impressive year measured by any scale. It was a record year for growth and the development of the vanilla credit market has exceeded expectations. The market has proven to be resilient; many people expected the structured side to slow down a little, but that wasn't the case. It was a surprising year." The biggest surprise was the strong flow of business in the final quarter of 1999 - particularly since most dealers had expected trading to grind to a halt because of investors' fears of a millennium bug. Olivier Jalouneix, head of Euro-MTNs at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter (MSDW), says: "The pace of business from October to December was much higher than everyone expected. Investors closed their books very late, and liquidity was still good even at the beginning of December. The public markets slowed down quicker but this meant we could extend business in the private market." Of the total $343.56 billion-worth of non-syndicated debt issued last year, excluding self-led deals and issues off financially repackaged programmes (1999 review criteria), over $130 billion-worth was in euros, compared to $80.98 billion and $80.51 billion-worth of yen, according to MTNWare. Daniel Cogoi, head of Euro-MTNs at Paribas, says: "The extent that euro issuance exceeded that of the dollar was surprising. Everyone expected that euro volumes would be high, but not that the change would happen so quickly." However, some dealers report that it was difficult to sell long-dated euro notes in the private markets. Out of $66.99 billion-worth of euro notes (1999 review criteria), with a size less than $250 million, $30.89 billion had a term of 3 years or less, according to MTNWare. Jalouneix, at MSDW, explains: "There were relatively few plain vanilla euro-denominated private placement trades with long maturities. A lot of the new investors were insurance companies and pension funds which are not all yet familiar with the Euro-MTN format. In addition, the longer the maturity the closer issuers' levels need to be to those in the secondary market. Many issuers aren't willing to pay for long-dated senior euro-denominated Euro-MTNs." The increase in pension funds in the investor base was a trend picked out by other dealers. Eddy, at WDR, says: "There has been an upsurge in business coming from pension funds and life insurance companies. Many pension funds are making their first foray into the market and life insurers in Europe are interested in hedging annuity risk brought about by lower interest rates. Many are looking at MTNs, particularly structures, to achieve this." A true credit market began to emerge in 1999. As Emu removed FX plays investors increasingly turned to the credit spectrum in search of yield. Many single-A and triple-B names, such as FBA Icelandic Investment Bank, and a growing number of corporate borrowers, including DaimlerChrysler, Kingfisher and MEPC, were able to achieve attractive funding. Of total debt traded last year (1999 review criteria), 23.6:as issued by private corporates, private finance and private utilities. And the number of single-A borrowers accessing the market grew to from 16.4:n 1998 to 19.6:ast year (1999 review criteria). Simon Hill, head of Euro-MTNs at Credit Suisse First Boston, says: "A few years ago the market, especially structures, was dominated by a small number of triple-A and double-A issuers with not much below that until the emerging market issuers. This changed in 1999, as more investors relaxed their credit criteria. This is true of flow into Japan and Europe. Investors are looking for spread and they're willing to go down the curve to get it." But Cogoi, at Paribas, believes it is still early days. He says: "For a real credit market to develop there needs to be a critical mass of borrowers regularly issuing within well developed sectors, like telecoms and cars. We're still a long way off the US market." Business out of Japan not only came back from the depths in 1999 but exceeded expectations. Total non-syndicated yen issuance (using 1999 review criteria) topped $80.5 billion last year compared to $49.96 billion in 1998. Henry Nevstad, senior associate director, at Deutsche Bank is confident Japan's recovery can be sustained. He says: "The Japanese market accounted for approximately one-third of the total market for private placements in 1999. Although there are several political and structural changes taking place we'll continue to see the same levels of activity from Japan." As the Nikkei strengthened index- and equity-linked trades were among the highest in demand. Reverse duals and Bermudan callables were also popular. However the Japanese Ministry of Finance, in its attempt to increase transparency in the markets, introduced reporting standards and the marking-to-market of securities. Dealers think the result of this could be to turn investors away from structured trades. Sam Amalou, director, Daiwa SBCM Europe, says: "If structural risk is reduced investors will have to look at credit risk to pick up yield. This was evident last year and it will continue. We've had enquiry from life insurance companies for single-A names up to 10 years, which was rarely seen before." The sterling market surpassed its volumes of 1998, although not to the same extent as dollars or yen. But Fergus Kiely, head of Euro-MTNs at HSBC, says: "It was a highly successful year for sterling and I think it will continue to be strong in 2000 with plays into Europe. Investors will buy sterling to then swap into euros, gaining a pick-up on the basis swap." In the US the Financial Accounting Standards Board's (Fasb's) dreaded rule 133 affected Euro-MTN issuance by US borrowers. Although implementation is not due until June 15 2000 the thought of having to record all swap transactions on a quarterly basis was enough to keep many US issuers away from non-dollar trades last year. But Peter Jackson, managing director, head of Euro-MTNs at Salomon Smith Barney, sees two sides to the situation. He says: "There has been talk of the rule being adopted in other countries. Fasb 133 is draconian. It causes a lot of problems in the US, but in some cases it has helped Euromarket business, forcing issuers to borrow in ways that may not be the most cost-effective." For most larger issuers staying away from the market won't be an option. Joe Cousins, director, term funding, at Federal Home Loan Banks, says: "The system's accountants have spent a lot of time analysing the impact of Fasb 133. However, regardless of the accounting practice, our financial institutions have borrowing needs. This means we anticipate being active in the capital markets." Originators observed an increasing number of corporates signing in 1999. The trend continues for asset-backed facilities and guaranteed investment contract or gic-backed programmes, such as MassMutual and Allstate, both of which signed in June 1999. Europe was the main focus for newcomers. Scott Church, managing director, head of European money markets origination, at Merrill Lynch, says: "Consolidation of industries in Europe in the coming years will have a huge impact on capital markets and correspond
August 04, 2000