Poor countries, NGOs and businesses must intensify pressure for action against climate change when nations gather in Marrakesh in November for the COP 22 conference, experts say. Marrakesh is the first full gathering since the COP 21 meeting last December, when the Paris Agreement enshrined a global effort to limit warming to 2°C, or ideally 1.5°C.
“It should be a fairly celebratory COP, because we’ve got entry into force a lot earlier than was ever expected,” said Camilla Born, policy adviser at E3G, a consultancy in London. “That is a massive sign of the commitment out there to Paris from countries and different constituencies.”
But any complacency would be misplaced. “One thing has been haunting these talks for years,” said Jan Kowalzig, climate change policy adviser at Oxfam in Berlin. “We are on track for 3°C. Everyone knows this. There have been lots of efforts to increase ambition in mitigation, but they have never resulted in anything that moves us away from that track.”
Action on the scale required was “out of the question” in Marrakesh, he said. But discussions there could open the way to more ambition later.
Countries have raced to ratify Paris, partly so it comes into force before the US election on November 8. Republican candidate Donald Trump has talked of rescinding the deal.
The goal was reached on Tuesday, when the European Union rushed through ratification, crossing the threshold that 55 states producing 55% of global emissions had ratified. Coal-reliant Poland won concessions to secure its support, and yesterday (Thursday) its parliament voted overwhelmingly to ratify.
It would now take a President Trump four years to extricate the US — though he could simply ignore the deal. “That is one of the limitations of the fact that a lot of actions in the US are taken under executive authority,” said Eliot Whittington, deputy director of the Prince of Wales’s Corporate Leaders Group in Cambridge. “But the Environmental Protection Agency’s mandate is legislative, and if the US president was intent on doing nothing despite the Paris Agreement, that would be subject to challenge in the US courts.”
The main task in Marrakesh is to plan negotiations to establish institutions and rules to make Paris work. “Ratification is very good news, but it’s just signing a paper,” said Jens Clausen, climate change adviser at Greenpeace in Copenhagen. “Rules means how you verify everything, what can count as climate finance, how you account for forests. It might sound nerdy, but if you don’t get the rules right, it will not work.”
One area where ground rules are needed is finance. Rich states have promised to mobilise $100bn a year to help poor ones fight and cope with global warming. But they are supplying far less, and much of what they count is commercial loans and export credit, said Kowalzig.
Another crucial task will be planning the 2018 meeting when countries volunteer ways to increase the ambition of their decarbonisation.
In that context, non-state actors can play a crucial role. “We’ve seen huge momentum from companies, regions, cities — the people who have to make this happen,” said Kate Levick, policy director at CDP, an NGO in London. “We need that virtuous circle to continue: governments coming up with more detail, and demonstrable progress by other stakeholders to give governments confidence.”