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Deutsche Bank predicts $155bn of private sector CMBS
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Single asset, single borrower deals drove the US CMBS market in 2025, particularly on New York City collateral as office attendance rose. With interest rates predicted to fall further in 2026, market participants are looking forward to a greater variety of deals on commercial real estate from other cities and sectors, writes Pooja Sarkar
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The expectation of light deal flow through the summer and into the fourth quarter is pushing spreads on conduit CMBS to the tightest levels of the year, with an issuer this week pricing the latest offering at 108bp over swaps for the benchmark triple-A class. -
US CMBS issuers have cranked out over $3bn in conduit and single borrower offerings in the past week, as spreads in the sector tighten in on the back of low supply and a muted reaction to the Brexit event last month.
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Nobody likes it when markets seize up, but the post-Brexit plight of the UK commercial property funds shows markets working well, not badly. It also demonstrates why markets, not banks, are the best providers of financing.
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The news that seven open ended commercial real estate funds froze redemptions this week should come as no surprise. Funding highly illiquid, chunky investments with cash that investors can pull at short notice is a flawed strategy.
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Fitch Ratings has downgraded a Morgan Stanley UK CMBS deal, Ulysses (European Loan Conduit No. 27) as the British referendum result shakes confidence in UK commercial real estate.
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Private label CMBS issuance plummeted in June to the lowest levels since February 2012, according to Kroll Bond Ratings analysts, with just $968.3m pricing during the month.
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Weakness in the Italian commercial property market will hit bondholders in Natixis’ legacy Infinity 2006-1 “Classico” synthetic CMBS deal, after a listed Italian property fund defaulted on a €378m loan backing the bulk of the deal.
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European credit fund managers look precariously positioned after last week’s rally, with the market having taken a turn for the weaker and options trading activity suggesting few are well hedged.
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The US CMBS primary market is humming to life after going through much of June without any new issuance, but market players say that uncertainty in the market has deepened on the back of the Commercial Real Estate Finance Council conference last week, which raised more questions than it answered.
