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After record volumes in 2012, there were many CEEMEA bankers who doubted that their bond market could match such numbers this year. But there are compelling reasons to think that CEEMEA issuers are about to set a new record.
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As any politician knows, statistics are a very useful tool for making any point you like. This must have now become apparent too to ABS and covered bond bankers who are scrutinising the European Banking Authority’s analysis of liquidity in their two markets — analysis that may have raised more questions than it answers.
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Morgan Stanley’s Andrew ‘Babyface’ Salvoni threw Blog into a state of confusion by revealing that he had just celebrated a ‘landmark’ birthday by going bowling with his friends.
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Only 17% of high yield companies in Europe, the Middle East and Africa with first time ratings given since 2010 achieved their profit forecasts for the first year after rating initiation, Moody's has reported.
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Loan Ranger is feeling a distinct sense of nostalgia — specifically nostalgia for those heady, pre-crisis days of 2007. For in the syndicated loan market, there’s an oh-so worrying feeling that we’ve been here before.
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“Next year will be better than the last” has been the securitization mantra since the 2008 financial crisis. While the refrain may have grown weary as few signs of a market revival have emerged in Europe, they have reason to hold out hope for 2014 when regulatory reprieve could begin in earnest.
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The RMBS market in the Netherlands has long been a cornerstone of the wider European RMBS market, but it faces some stiff headwinds. House prices have fallen 20% from their peak, putting a growing number of mortgage borrowers into negative equity. The government’s efforts at reforming the housing market and reducing the Netherlands’ high LTV/mortgage tax deductibility model have only added to the sense of uncertainty, making turnover of new sales and origination of new mortgages sluggish. Despite all of this, RMBS performance remains very robust with short term and long term arrears barely rising over the past year. A bigger problem could be the lack of primary supply this year. Issuers from the Netherlands are very well funded and, as a result, have publicly issued only €4bn of new RMBS this year to date. When the absence of UK issuance this year is also factored in, there is a danger some investors might rethink their commitment to the RMBS asset class as a whole. In this roundtable, EuroWeek asked a selection of leading investors and issuers in RMBS from the Netherlands for their take on the macroeconomic picture, the shrinking volume of paper and the problems this might create for liquidity and investor appeal, and where potential spread volatility could arise in this sector.
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The Greek government announced in 2010 plans to raise €50bn from privatisations by 2016. This ambitious goal was lowered to €19bn, before being cut to €15bn.
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EM debt bankers patting themselves on the back for waiting until after the Federal Open Market Committee meeting to print deals owe more to luck than judgement. They should be encouraging issuers to take advantage of windows of market stability, rather than selling them the idea that they can predict the unpredictable.