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Securitization Comment

  • Greek stocks and bonds jumped this week on the news of a bad result for governing left-wing party Syriza in the European elections and the announcement of a snap national election, increasing the prospect of pro-market and centre-right party New Democracy taking power soon. But the revision of asset valuation on the back of this doesn’t add up.
  • The speed with which sterling sub-sectors have switched their benchmark rate from Libor to Sonia has been astonishing. There’s still some way to go, particularly in the corporate market, but the transition, which looked almost unassailable in 2017, might just be done on time.
  • Theresa May’s statement today that she will step down as leader of the Conservative Party on June 7 has increased the likelihood that the UK will leave the European Union without a deal, meaning capital markets need to prepare for the worst again.
  • European commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) have enjoyed a revival of late, despite the battering they took during the crisis years. Although regulators excluded the asset class from the Simple, Transparent and Standardised (STS) framework, it has shown that a select band of specialist investors is enough to get by in post-crisis securitization markets.
  • While other central banks have started to grapple with climate change, the Federal Reserve has been conspicuous by its absence. But as green shoots begin to emerge in the US, the Fed will not be able to ignore the topic for much longer.
  • There were widespread hopes earlier this year that not only would Italy’s Garanzia sulla Cartolarizzazione delle Sofferenze (GACS) scheme be extended, but it would also include a provision for loans classified as unlikely-to-pay (UTP).
  • The UK’s new Brexit Bond Management Office is still preparing to issue its first notes, originally scheduled for last Friday. The Brexit-themed Gilts are sized at £36.4bn, equivalent to £350m a week over their two year maturity.
  • Capital market specialists are good at living with radical uncertainty. Just as banks and investors carried on calmly trading US Treasuries through successive debt ceiling crises, they are now displaying similar sangfroid about Brexit.
  • Among the myriad dilemmas tied to managing Libor exposures and the development of Sofr markets, one potential remedy has steadily gained more attention: leave it to the government to fix the problem.