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Deutsche Bank predicts $155bn of private sector CMBS
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Single asset, single borrower deals drove the US CMBS market in 2025, particularly on New York City collateral as office attendance rose. With interest rates predicted to fall further in 2026, market participants are looking forward to a greater variety of deals on commercial real estate from other cities and sectors, writes Pooja Sarkar
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The markets have largely endorsed US president-elect Donald Trump’s mission to “make America great again”. But previous populist strongmen, in their quests to prove national strength and virility, have done a world of damage to their country’s economic prospects.
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Issuance of US CMBS in 2016 is projected to be down roughly 30% year-over-year, with the outlook for renewed growth mixed as the market eyes threats to CMBS as a source of commercial real estate (CRE) debt capital. -
The CMBS market took the surprise US presidential election result as an opportunity to pick up bonds on the cheap, with spreads tightening in the immediate aftermath of Tuesday’s vote.
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Morgan Stanley is in the market this week with a $725.57m conduit CMBS transaction that will test a vertical risk retention structure, as market participants say that a horizontal model is proving to be a tough sell for both issuers and investors.
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A number of single family rental (SFR) properties were damaged by the devastating Hurricane Matthew but, according to Moody’s, the effect on transactions should be minimal.
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The US housing market saw a slowdown in construction as new build starts fell for a second straight month in September.
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As the US CLO and CMBS markets debate the viability of horizontal versus vertical risk retention, the market is quietly discussing a third solution to this year’s favourite fixed-income conundrum.
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Deutsche Bank priced the first ever single asset CMBS offering to comply with risk retention rules late last week, giving the market the first glimpse of what a deal tied to a single property will look like under the new regulatory regime.
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The US CMBS market has been steadily widening since a summer rally pushed spreads on the bonds to the tightest levels of 2016, with new issue benchmark triple-As widening out by over 20bp since then.
