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Single asset, single borrower deals drove the US CMBS market in 2025, particularly on New York City collateral as office attendance rose. With interest rates predicted to fall further in 2026, market participants are looking forward to a greater variety of deals on commercial real estate from other cities and sectors, writes Pooja Sarkar
The conditions are set so that 2026 promises to be even better than the already impressive 2025. A deepening of esoteric asset classes, combined with entirely new deal types, as well as more debut issuers are set to be the key themes, writes Tom Hall
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A typically slow start for new US CMBS issuance this year has led to spreads tightening in the secondary market, though the primary pipeline is bracing itself for a surge of deals. -
US retailer Sears has landed a $100m private secured term loan, with a potential further $200m to be secured against the collateral, after the firm announced a fresh batch of store closures that Morningstar said could cause trouble for 16 CMBS loans.
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A single borrower CMBS deal in the works from Natixis is set to be among the first in the asset class in 2018.
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Brian Ford, head of structured finance research at Kroll Bond Rating Agency, told GlobalCapital this week that the strong risk on investor sentiment seen this year will carry into 2018, but added that autos and non-agency MBS volumes could decline from 2017 levels.
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Issuers have flocked to the CMBS market with deals this month, including the largest commercial real estate CLO since the crisis. With a seven potential deals still to close before year end, this December could be the busiest in a decade, said Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysts.
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Assura, the UK healthcare property Reit, has raised £310m of gross proceeds through a firm placing and placing and open offer.
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At JP Morgan’s fixed income markets 2018 outlook conference in New York on Tuesday, investors were advised to move into more defensive positions, with macro factors expected to weigh on credit next year.
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The long rally in US CMBS that has taken place since the financial crisis will likely run out of steam next year, said analysts at JP Morgan, as the market moves into the final stretch of a bull run that has seen spreads plummet to their tightest levels in years.
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With three weeks in the year still to go, US securitization volume has reached a post-crisis high of $474bn, according to S&P Global Ratings.
