The spectre of deepening political instability hangs over the former Yugoslavia as demands for independence gather force, a top Bosnian government official said yesterday.
Bosnia’s foreign minister Mladen Ivanic told Emerging Markets in an interview that the possible secession of Montenegro and Kosovo from Serbia could destabilize the region by fanning the flames of extreme nationalism.
Secession “will have consequences for the region as a whole,” Ivanic said. “In Serbia and also in neighbouring countries, there is the possibility of extreme political parties gaining influence.”
His comments came as Montenegro headed for the polls for a referendum on its independence. As Emerging Markets went to press the results were still unknown, although turnout surpassed the required 50% threshold in the first few hours of the ballot on whether to dissolve their union with Serbia. The republic has been in a federal union with Serbia since the break-up of socialist Yugoslavia in 1992.
Serbia’s stability is most vulnerable, Ivanic, a former prime minister of Bosnia’s Serb Republika Srpska, pointed out. The breakdown of the country’s EU negotiations over the handover of indicted war criminal Ratko Mladic, and the looming independence of the adjoining territory, threaten to ignite a popular revolt led by right-wing Serb nationalists against the reformist government of Vojislav Kostunica.
Ivanic said he is “quite sure that radicals will have much larger support in Serbia”.
The nationalist Serbian Radical Party won the most seats in Serbia’s parliamentary election last year, although Kostunica’s centre-right coalition clung on to power.
Kosovo’s future is crucial to the stability of the region. Pristina and Belgrade will begin the third round of UN-supervised talks on the territory’s status later this month. However, whereas Montenegro has equal status to Serbia within the union, Kosovo is legally an autonomous province of Serbia.
Aleksandar Simic, an adviser to Serbia’s prime minister on Kosovo, warned in an interview with Emerging Markets that “any changing of the borders will have a domino effect” – in reference to the province.
“Kosovo is a different case [to Montenegro]. If a solution is imposed [by the international community after the conclusion of the UN talks], minorities across the region will demand their right to independence,” Ivanic said. “Why not Albanians in Macedonia? Why not Serbs in Bosnia? Why not Croats in Bosnia? It will be extremely difficult to find a logical explanation in accordance with international law. In the long run Kosovo will be an example that everything is possible.”
Ivanic said that the EU needs to adopt a careful strategy: “Especially at this stage, the EU has to send more positive messages to Serbia. Not only punishment and sanctions, but also open door to continue negotiating the SAA” Stability and Association Agreement.