In a further sign that political turbulence is catching up with president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, the Brazilian leader – and would-be host of this year’s IDB meeting - may give the annual forum a miss.
The Brazilian president was expected to address the bank’s board of governors Monday in a much anticipated speech that was likely to highlight the country’s economic turnaround under his watch. Instead, Lula is set to face daunting domestic duties in Brasilia.
“Actually, [president Lula] has got a very heavy agenda on Monday,” a presidential insider told Emerging Markets yesterday. The source also pointed out that Honduran president, Jose Manuel Zelaya Rosales, who is scheduled to attend the Belo Horizonte meeting, will later fly to Brasilia to meet with Lula.
The recent succession of crises has put the Brazilian head of state on the defensive. Just six months before the elections, he has lost many of his key ministers, including his finance minister Antonio Palocci, trusted by Lula and investors alike. Nevertheless, his vice president, Jose Alencar, has denied that Lula might feel left “on his own” – a sentiment the president is reported to have expressed - after nearly 40 months in office.
“He might have been talking about the friendship that he feels for them, as a kind of tribute,” Alencar told Emerging Markets.
Still, in addition to Palocci’s resignation, Lula also lost several senior government figures after a corruption scandal involving Congressional vote-buying and illegal campaign financing allegations, including the presidential chief of staff Jose Dirceu and the communications strategist Luiz Gushiken . From the original “inner circle” of top minister, the general secretary of the presidency Luiz Dulci is the only one to have survived successive waves of resignations. Meanwhile, Dilma Rousseff, the new chief of staff, has emerged as a powerful figure within the government.
Nine other ministers also had to leave their posts last week in order to run for the October elections, when deputies, senators, and governors will also be elected. Lula will preside an official ceremony to swear them in on Monday afternoon in the federal capital.
Among the newcomers is Tarso Genro, who will be in charge of political co-ordination. Nevertheless, he has already made clear that he was not going to co-ordinate Lula’s presidential campaign.
Lula has yet to confirm officially that he will seek a second presidential mandate, although this is considered a foregone conclusion in political circles. If he does, he will face a challenge from the outgoing social democratic governor of Sao Paulo Geraldo Alckmin, who currently trails him in opinion polls by some 20 percentage points.
Jose Serra, another social democrat who was defeated by Lula at the 2002, resigned the mayorship of Sao Paulo city on Friday in order to run for governor and try to succeed Alckmin as the leader of the richest state in the country. Brazilian electoral rules say that candidates must leave any executive post in the six months preceding an election.