Bombs, assassinations and months of bitter recrimination have all served to cast an ugly pall over Lebanon's so-called cedar revolution – the popular uprising against decades of Syrian dominance that followed the killing on February 14 of the country's former prime minister and billionaire entrepreneur, Rafiq Hariri.
Much-feted by diverse advocates of democratic shake-up in the Middle East, Lebanon's dramatic overthrow of masked Syrian rule this spring gave way to fear over more political assassinations in the wake of yet further violence, and as the country has awaited the outcome, due next month, of a UN investigation into Hariri's murder.
Now the first real hope of a resolution has emerged following the late August arrest of four of Lebanon's top Syrian-backed security officials. Not only has the UN team been brought one dramatic step closer to finding Hariri's killers, Lebanon too has moved decisively towards a restoration of justice after decades of murky meddling by foreign powers.
For Fouad Siniora, Lebanon's new prime minister, the arrests – which implicate the entire security chain that Syria set up in Lebanon – mark nothing less than a watershed.
"This is a major step for the prevailing of the rule of law in this country," he tells Emerging Markets in an exclusive interview. "This is a vital step in the right direction and has been met with a great deal of satisfaction among the Lebanese. This will put us on the right track vis-a-vis the various measures and policies that the government is taking along the path to reform."
Seated in the same imposing office in the Grand Serail (the Ottoman-era hilltop barracks that houses the government) that the late Hariri occupied until his resignation as prime minister last October, Siniora strikes a contemplative tone:
"We are coming close to real answers. This will provide closure to a very dramatic year, and that will help bring confidence to the people," he says. "Psychologically, people want this [uncertainty] to come to an end. This is going to change the mood in a very positive way."
Siniora was Hariri's right-hand man in business and politics for more than 20 years. The soft-spoken 62-year-old also served in all five of Hariri's cabinets, from 1992 to 2004, first as minister of state then, most recently, as finance minister. It was Hariri's son and political heir, Saad, who nominated him for his new role.
New impetus
The momentum created by the arrests is in many ways critical. It gives the new government – and Siniora in particular – something of an enhanced mandate: the prime minister has been regarded by many as Saad's proxy and he had yet, despite a strong parliamentary majority and international backing, to assert his full control. Moreover, the renewed violence, as well as vicious infighting, had shaken confidence in Lebanon's ability to pull itself together.
Lebanon, so fearful of a return to its darkest civil war days, finds itself in a curious situation where acts of apparent terrorism are almost considered the lesser of two evils. "We're not talking about a fear of real conflict – we're far removed from that. These acts, bad as they are, are not a real threat," says Siniora, downplaying the significance of the spate of bombings that have followed Hariri's death.
His chief task now is to rebuild public confidence in the government so that it can become an effective provider of services. But it will be an uphill battle. Already weighed down by a $36 billion debt, Lebanon's economy has suffered further from the political and security crisis, with lower tourism revenues this year. Growth has also stalled.
Then there's the grisly detail of domestic politics. If Siniora is to stand any chance of pushing through his reforms – including an ambitious budget he prepared last year as finance minister – he'll have to negotiate with pro-Syrian Emile Lahoud, the Christian Maronite president, and Nabil Berri, the speaker of parliament, both of whom are at odds with the prime minister. Yet Siniora says he's undeterred by such perceived constraints: "I believe, first of all, that there's a unanimous drive among the Lebanese that it's high time to act. We have no choice but reform," he says.
Syrian connections
Managing relations with Syria is of equal concern. Although the departure of Syrian troops – and likewise the recent arrests – dealt a blow to its network of security officers, Damascus can still exert severe economic pressure on Beirut. In early July, for example, it imposed tight border controls, citing concerns over weapons smuggling from Lebanon. This effectively closed down the only land route for Lebanese trade to other Arab countries.
Can Siniora offer guarantees that such "disputes" won't recur? "It's not a matter of guarantees," he says. "What is really required is to have an open dialogue between our two countries, without an intermediary." Indeed, the prime minister is taking a profoundly conciliatory stance towards Syria, promising strong relations in the hope that the border crisis which stifled Lebanese trade, albeit temporarily, is not repeated.
"We are very keen on having an excellent relationship with Syria. It is in both our interests to have good relations," insists Siniora. Syria has in recent weeks come under increasing pressure in the wake of the arrests. Detlev Mehlis, the German prosecutor leading the UN team was set to return to Damascus this week to see Syrian president Bashar Assad as well as other government officials. Syrian officials deny involvement in the Hariri killing, insisting that they are the victims of an American-Israeli plot.
Calls are now mounting from all sides of the political spectrum to free Lebanon from all foreign interference in its affairs. Indeed, safeguarding Lebanese sovereignty over its internal affairs has become a potent political rallying cry, following Hariri's murder. As one analyst sees it: "Lebanon is a sort of ideological watershed kind of place – Baathism, Arab nationalism and now this democracy movement have all sprung from here."
But for Siniora, the opportunity is unique. "Now we have, for the first time, a government and a political situation that genuinely gives us a chance to build a Lebanese political system that can operate on its own, with checks and balances and institutions that work." What this requires, though, is that people first internalize "the idea of a sovereign Lebanon, where decisions are made within the government and where there is no final recourse outside to solve problems."
"The important thing is that Lebanon is now free from management from the outside," he adds.
A noble ideal, perhaps, but as one US diplomat tells Emerging Markets: "Poor Lebanon: it always ends up becoming a tool in a greater game."
Pqs
"We are coming close to real answers"
"We have no choice but reform"