Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it revised its outlook on the Republic of Bolivia to negative
from stable. Standard & Poor's also said that it affirmed its 'B-' long-term and 'C'
short-term credit ratings on Bolivia.In addition, as a direct result of the action on the Bolivian sovereign,
Standard & Poor's revised its outlook on Banco Mercantil S.A. to negative from stable.
Standard & Poor's also affirmed its 'B-' long-term and 'C' short-term credit ratings on Banco Mercantil.
"The revised outlook on Bolivia is based on weakening governability in the country derived from the increasingly severe political fragmentation across regional, social, and ethnic divisions," explained Standard & Poor's
credit analyst Sebastian Briozzo. President Carlos Mesa's offer to resign his post yesterday underscores the difficulties posed by this phenomenon.
Regardless of the outcome of the current crisis, the level of polarization makes it unlikely that anyone could build a government agenda that can find some support among the disparate groups. Standard & Poor's believes that
political turmoil in Bolivia will continue even if there are early presidential elections.
Recently, most of the country's economic indicators have improved. For example, GDP grew by 2.4% in 2003 and 3.7% in 2004, the budget deficit decreased to 6.1% of GDP in 2004 from 8.1% in 2003, and exports increased by an estimated 35% in 2004, boosted by high commodity prices. Regardless, increasing political instability led to an almost complete disruption of activities in the capital city of La Paz this past week.
The deterioration in Bolivia's institutional framework negatively affects the already frail operating environment of Bolivian banks, making banking more difficult in a country that already poses big challenges to its financial
institutions. Nevertheless, Banco Mercantil has shown a relatively consistent performance over the past stressful times, and, at this point, the ratings remain constrained by the sovereign's creditworthiness.
Even though multilateral funds--coupled with access to domestic borrowing--should continue to provide financing for the government over the short term, Standard & Poor's believes that Bolivia's ability to honor its
domestically issued government bonds (Bolivia does not have any indebtedness outstanding in international capital markets) would be threatened if political developments worsens. "Signs of a further deterioration in governability might trigger a downgrade," Mr. Briozzo added. "Conversely, the emergence of a solution to the country's immediate political agenda that has sufficient support across political parties and social groups could stabilize the country. Such an agreement would therefore constitute a positive rating factor and might lead to a revision of the outlook back to stable."