What to expect

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What to expect

China dominates almost all international policy summits these days, and the ADB's annual meeting will be no exception. Whether it's the country's exchange rate stance, its economic outlook, its banking system, its trade policy or its capital markets development, China takes the headlines.

The most controversial subject is the country's exchange rate regime. Pressure is mounting from the international community on China to adopt a more flexible exchange rate policy. At the most recent G7 summit, finance ministers demanded that the world's third biggest exporter act immediately.

Although Chinese authorities have stated that they are preparing the ground, seasoned observers say Beijing will only change tack when it suits them, not the rest of the world. China is likely to face less hostility on this issue at the ADB meeting, but sideline discussions between Chinese and US treasury officials could prove interesting.

Another important issue is China's economic outlook. Along with the US, China is the engine of world growth. Investors will want reassurance that China will be able to maintain its high growth levels without stirring inflationary concerns. So far, the country has managed this delicate balancing act excellently.

What to watch out for: China's country presentation at 8.30am on May 6. Li Yong, vice minister of finance, will speak on "The global and Chinese economies".


Regional integration (any photos of Asian leaders greeting each other)

Although regional integration has been discussed at previous ADB meetings, there's a feeling that it will receive greater emphasis this year. Certainly Haruhiko Kuroda, the Bank's new president, is keen to promote the idea and has already set up a new department charged with promoting greater regional cooperation.

At a financial level, Asia has already taken some important steps such as the Chiang Mai Initiative, a network of currency swaps among Asian nations, and the Asian Bond Fund, which will help promote a regional bond market.

But cooperation is still lacking in important areas, for example in energy policy. A recent report by McKinsey, the consulting firm, says that Asian governments and their national oil companies can promote stable energy prices and reliable supply by creating a regional petroleum market, expanding strategic reserves and building a network of pipelines.

In other areas too, most notably in trade, more collaboration is needed. China, the key country in many respects, is building ties. In recent weeks, the country's authorities have strengthened relationships with India and Indonesia.

But key questions remain unanswered. How much substance is there in these new partnerships? And will regional rivalries, especially between China and Japan, undermine cooperation efforts?

What to watch out for: Governors' seminar at 4.00pm on May 3 entitled "A road map for Asia's economic cooperation and integration"

The ADB (photo of Kuroda)

Now that the Bank has a new president, what changes will he bring? Although Haruhiko Kuroda, like all previous ADB presidents, is a former senior Japanese financial bureaucrat, his relative youth arguably brings a greater sense of urgency to the institution.

He faces big questions, not least what the actual role of the Bank should be. Many of the region's countries are now investment-grade and hold huge reserves. Yet Asia and the Pacific are still home to two-thirds of the world's poor. This poses a dilemma for the ADB.

What, for example, should its strategy towards China be? This is an A2-rated country with over $400 billion of reserves, but about 46% of the population survives on less than $2 a day, according to the World Bank.

Other questions also need answering: Where does Central Asia fit into the ADB's strategy, and where does its role end and the EBRD's begin in that part of the world? Will China be given more influence over the governance of the Bank? Will the ADB be able to secure enough resources going forward?

Kuroda acknowledges that the Bank faces a number of challenges: "The region is changing so fast, and the ADB has to adjust itself just as fast," he says. "That is not easy for an established institution."

What to watch out for: Kuroda's press conferences, where he should give more details on his vision

Financing infrastructure (photo of Chidambaram)

Improving Asia's infrastructure will be a big topic for discussion. East Asia and the Pacific have an annual infrastructure shortfall of about $200 billion. That shortfall is only going to get bigger, and the rate and scale of urbanization throughout Asia poses big challenges for the region's leaders.

By 2015, for example, the year when the UN Millennium Development Goals should be met, Asia's population is expected to exceed 4 billion. Almost half will be living in towns and cities. How will these people's basic needs be met?

There are also massive problems in rural areas, where many of the region's poor live. In addition, certain parts of Indonesia, India, Malaysia and elsewhere need to be rebuilt following the devastating consequences of the tsunami.

The upshot is that governments alone cannot meet these growing demands. Private-sector help is necessary. Some countries, such as India, are hoping to encourage public-private partnerships. But this is a new concept and has rarely been applied even in industrialized economies.

Ernest Kepper, a former senior official at the World Bank, says Asia will not be able to finance its infrastructure gap until it addresses what he calls "the missing link" in its financial development, which is the lack of a modern risk-management culture. He calls on the multilaterals to provide greater technical support in this area to developing countries.

What to watch out for: There is a whole series of seminars on infrastructure financing on May 3, starting at 8.45am

Capital markets (photo of Arroyo)

While it may not seem like it right now, the bond markets are becoming a bigger source of financing for Asia's governments and companies. Once the markets stabilize, bankers expect a slew of deals.

So far, Pakistan, the Philippines and Indonesia have placed transactions in the international markets. But other sovereigns such as Malaysia, Korea and China are likely to tap investors later in the year. Market observers also expect a pick up in corporate issuance. Korea Telecom, Malaysian palm oil producer IOI Group and India's Essar Steel are among those thought to be considering a new bond deal.

The local markets are also developing. India, Malaysia and Korea, for example, are seeing healthy activity. In India, public-sector undertakings, such as the Power Grid Corporation, are dominating the domestic bond market. Unlike other emerging regions, however, Asia is trying to develop a regional local bond market. The creation of Asian Bond Fund 2, the initiative led by the region's central banks that encourages greater investment in local securities, has provided a big boost.

However, issues need to be addressed, not least on the regulatory side. In addition, risk management practices need to be incorporated in the everyday activities of governments, banks and businesses. That will help encourage greater and more stable investment flows in the future.

What to watch out for: A seminar on the future of the capital markets at 4.00pm on May 4

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