By Taimur Ahmad
Uruguay’s election of a socialist president may have tipped the political balance of power in Latin America. With a dozen presidential elections due over the next 18 months, and in the wake of mounting regional discontent, will the trend to the left continue?
When Uruguay’s new president Tabare Vazquez took office at the beginning of March this year, thousands flocked to the streets of Montevideo to celebrate the inauguration of the country’s first left-wing leader – and the end of nearly two centuries of two-party rule. His victory was widely seen as yet another triumph for Latin America’s emboldened left, whose influence has been steadily growing across the continent in recent years.
Yet it is a shift that analysts say is symptomatic of broader restlessness throughout the region – a fact that is also likely to be reflected in the outcome of elections in 2006, through polls in Peru, Colombia, Mexico, Brazil and Venezuela among others.
Uruguay became the fifth Latin American nation to move to the left in recent years. Venezuela, Chile, Brazil and Argentina also have left-wing governments.
Vasquez has already set about shoring up links with leftist leaders in the region, apparently making good on his promise to put regional integration at the top of his foreign policy: he signed a deal for energy cooperation with Chavez, and then completed agreements on human rights with Kirchner and held talks with Lula. He also re-established full diplomatic relations with Cuba, which had been cut off abruptly by his predecessor.
Uruguay’s shift to the left is largely down to disillusionment with the right and the failure of its economic policies. Most analysts, however, expect Vazquez to follow Brazil’s Lula by maintaining broadly unchanged economic policies, while placing greater emphasis on jobs and poverty.
On the move
Yet Uruguay is just the latest example of a deeper malaise across the continent. The remainder of this year is likely to augur political change at a fundamental level in several other countries. Bolivia, Ecuador and Peru, for example, face simmering public discontent that could force new leadership.
Bolivia, South America’s poorest and most unstable country, is also one of its most polarized, where radicalized indigenous groups have been demanding greater social and economic justice. It’s a call that has dogged Bolivia’s leaders for years, and president Carlos Mesa is no exception. He resigned last month, in a move widely seen as a ploy aimed at securing a new mandate. His gamble appears to have paid off for now, as he has since agreed to remain in office after signing a pact with the main parties in Congress. Still, his viability will be put to the test against Evo Morales, his political rival and likely presidential contender for the 2007 elections.
Ecuador’s President Gutierrez has also found himself mired in a new political crisis: a confrontation over the selection of Supreme Court judges is threatening to unravel his tenuous congressional coalition. Gutierrez controversially sacked 27 of the country’s 31 Supreme Court judges towards the end of last year.
Meanwhile, Peru’s president Alejandro Toledo has seen his popularity plummet to 8% since his election in 2001. The embattled leader is also appearing before a congressional hearing on alleged election fraud in the run up to the presidential elections. Although Toledo rejects the charges that his supporters falsified signatures when campaigning, he has refused to sign a document registering the hearing, thus sparking the political crisis. A clear challenger to succeed Toledo in next year’s elections has yet to emerge.
Chile goes to the polls for both presidential and congressional elections this December. The ruling centre-left Concertacion coalition will benefit from strong economic growth and from the popularity of the outgoing president, Ricardo Lagos. Among all the coalition’s potential candidates, the former minister of defence, Michelle Bachelet, continues to lead opinion polls.
Further north, the run-up to Mexico’s presidential elections next year is brimming with high drama. A controversial front runner, a lame duck president and growing disenchantment with Mexico’s political elite means that the next 12 months will be exciting. What outside observers are more concerned about is whether the run-up to the election will lead to instability and leave question marks over Mexico’s future, especially if left-wing mayor of Mexico City Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador triumphs.
Other likely contenders for next year’s Mexican ballot are Partido Revolucionario Institutional’s (PRI) president Roberto Madrazo and the PAN minister of the interior Santiago Creel. President Vicente Fox, whose mandate to govern has been severely damaged since coming to power, will not run.
Washington worries
There’s a growing degree of anxiety in Washington over electoral outcomes. The US has for the last four years been pursuing an unofficial policy of ‘benign neglect’ towards its southern neighbours, and senior US officials have remarked recently that the series of upcoming elections in the region – notably in Colombia, Haiti and Venezuela – are a potential cause of instability.
In Venezuela, Hugo Chavez intends to seek a second six-year term in office in 2006. He also recently agreed a “strategic alliance” with Brazil’s Lula, reinforcing cooperation in mining, energy, infrastructure and other areas between the continent’s heavyweights and the region’s two most prominent left-wing leaders. They also agreed joint exploration, refining and petrochemical projects between Petrobras and PDVSA, the countries’ two oil companies.Brazil is also poised for presidential elections next year. Lula’s left-wing Workers’ Party (PT) has been suffering somewhat from internal divisions, which is hampering its ability to push key reforms through Congress. Still, Lula is expected to win.