When Uruguay's new president Tabar Vazquez took office at the beginning of March this year, thousands flocked to the streets of Montevideo to celebrate the inauguration of the country's first left-wing leader – and the end of nearly two centuries of two-party rule. His victory was widely seen as yet another triumph for Latin America's emboldened left, whose influence has been steadily growing across the continent in recent years.
Yet it is a shift that analysts say is symptomatic of broader restlessness throughout the region – a fact that is also likely to be reflected in the outcome of major elections in 2006, through polls in Peru, Colombia, Mexico, Brazil and Venezuela among others.
Uruguay became the fifth Latin American nation to move to the left in recent years. Venezuela, Chile, Brazil and Argentina also currently have left-wing governments.
Vazquez was sworn in for his five-year term with an audience of leaders including Brazil's Luiz Ignacio Lula da Silva, Venezuela's Hugo Chavez and Argentina's Nestor Kirchner. "I swear to work tirelessly for the prosperity of the Uruguayan people," Vazquez said as he took office.
A day later, he set about shoring up links with leftist leaders in the region, apparently making good on his promise to put regional integration at the top of his foreign policy: he signed a deal for energy cooperation with Chavez, and then completed agreements on human rights with Kirchner and held talks with Lula. He also re-established full diplomatic relations with Cuba, which had been cut off abruptly by his predecessor.
Uruguay's shift to the left is largely down to disillusionment with the right and the failure of its economic policies. Most analysts, however, expect Vazquez to follow Brazil's Lula by maintaining broadly unchanged economic policies, while placing greater emphasis on jobs and poverty.
On the move
Yet Uruguay is just the latest example of a deeper malaise across the continent. The remainder of this year is likely to augur political change at a fundamental level in several other countries. Bolivia, Ecuador and Peru, for example, face simmering public discontent that could force new leadership.
Bolivia, Latin America's poorest and most unstable country, is also one of its most polarized, where radicalized indigenous groups have been demanding greater social and economic justice. It's a call that has dogged Bolivia's leaders for years, and current president Carlos Mesa is no exception. He resigned last month, in a move widely seen as a ploy aimed at securing a new mandate. His gamble appears to have paid off for now, as he has since agreed to remain in office after signing a pact with the main parties in Congress. Still, his viability will be put to the test against Evo Morales, his political rival and likely presidential contender for the 2007 elections.
Ecuador's President Gutierrez has also found himself mired in a new political crisis: an ongoing confrontation over the selection of Supreme Court judges is threatening to unravel his tenuous congressional coalition. Gutierrez controversially sacked 27 of the country's 31 supreme court judges towards the end of last year.
Meanwhile, Peru's president Alejandro Toledo has seen his popularity plummet to 8% since his election in 2001. The embattled leader is also appearing before a congressional hearing on alleged election fraud in the presidential elections in 2000. Although Toledo rejects the charges that his supporters falsified signatures when campaigning to annul the results of those elections, he has refused to do so under oath, thus sparking the current political crisis. A clear challenger to succeed Toledo in next year's elections has yet to emerge.
Chile goes to the polls for both presidential and congressional elections this December. The ruling centre-left Concertacion coalition will benefit in the elections from strong economic growth and from the popularity of the current outgoing president, Ricardo Lagos. Among all the coalition's potential candidates, the former minister of defence, Michelle Bachelet, continues to lead opinion polls.
Further north, the run-up to Mexico's presidential elections next year is brimming with high drama. A congressional committee is to consider whether to remove legal immunity from Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, the left-wing mayor of Mexico City and front-runner in polls ahead of next year's elections. Loss of immunity could leave him open to prosecution in a contempt of court case, potentially eliminating him from the contest. Recent polls have shown that 70% of Mexicans oppose disqualifying him from a presidential run.
Other likely contenders for next year's Mexican ballot are Partido Revolucionario Institutional's (PRI) president Roberto Madrazo and the PAN minister of the interior Santiago Creel. President Vicente Fox, whose mandate to govern has been severely damaged since coming to power, will not run.
Washington worries
There's a growing degree of anxiety in Washington over electoral outcomes. The US has for the last four years been pursuing an unofficial policy of 'benign neglect' towards its southern neighbours, and senior US officials have remarked recently that the series of upcoming elections in the region – notably in Colombia, Haiti and Venezuela – are a potential cause of instability in the region.
Colombia, Latin America's third most populous country, has been racked by a bloody war for years. But its president, the US-backed right-wing Alvaro Uribe, remains popular, in part because of the country's economic recovery and increasing public security. Assuming that a constitutional amendment to allow him to stand for re-election in May 2006 is approved by the Constitutional Court, Uribe stands a good chance of winning a second term. He is at vehement – and possibly deadly – odds with his neighbour, Venezuela's Chavez, especially over the latter's alleged backing of Colombian rebels.
Chavez, on the other hand, staged a coup of his own by consolidating power after staggering victories in a recall referendum and regional elections last year. He intends to seek a second six-year term in office in 2006. He also recently agreed a "strategic alliance" with Brazil's Lula, reinforcing cooperation in mining, energy, infrastructure and other areas between the continent's heavyweights and the region's two most prominent left-wing leaders. They also agreed joint exploration, refining and petrochemical projects between Petrobras and Pdvsa, the countries' two oil companies.
Brazil is also poised for presidential elections next year. Lula's left-wing Worker's Party (PT) has been suffering somewhat from internal divisions, and a key member of the Brazil ruling coalition, the Democratic Movement Party, or PMDB, has decided to run its own candidate for president. That's bad news for Lula and his PT, which need the centrist PMDB to help them push key reform legislation through a divided congress. Still, Lula and his party are expected to emerge victorious.
ELECTION PIPELINE:
Haiti
November 2005
Under a UN plan, both presidential and congressional elections are expected later this year. But as yet, poor security still threatens to hamper efforts to fill the vacuum left by the ousting of former President Jean Bertrand Aristide a year ago.
Honduras
November 2005
Political parties held primaries in February this year, and candidates are Manuel Zelaya for the Liberal Party and Porfirio Lobo Sosa for the National Party. President Ricardo Maduro will not be a candidate because, under the Honduran Constitution, he is limited to one term.
Chile
December 2005
Incumbent party Concertacion has two possible candidates: Soledad Alvear (former foreign secretary) and Michelle Bachelet, a former defence minister; the latter leads in opinion polls. The Centre Right Coalition's candidate is Joaquin Lavin.
Costa Rica
February 2006
Former President Oscar Arias is a favourite to win next year's presidential elections.
Peru
April 2006
With the public disillusioned with political parties, the outlook for the 2006 election remains highly uncertain. No clear frontrunner to succeed Alejandro Toledo has emerged, and presidential candidates will have to form alliances.
Colombia
May 2006
President Alvaro Uribe is widely expected to win – assuming his proposed constitutional amendment to allow him to run for a second term is upheld.
Mexico
July 2006
Mexico City's left-wing mayor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is the frontrunner for the presidential elections, so long as he can fend off attempts to prosecute him in a contempt of court case.
Nicaragua
October 2006
Radical former Sandinista president Daniel Ortega is making a bold bid for presidency. His main rival is popular former Managua mayor Herty Lewites.
Brazil
October 2006
President Lula's party emerged strengthened from local elections in October 2004, the first contest the president had faced since coming to power. He is widely expected to be successful next year.
Ecuador
October 2006
Support for President Guiterrez has eroded and his grip on power appears fragile.
Venezuela
November 2006
Strengthened by a referendum last August as well as by a markedly improved economy, firebrand President Hugo Chavez is likely to emerge victorious from next year's elections.