The topics to dominate hallway gossip at the Okinawa meetings relate to influence, leadership and power at the IDB in future years. Whispers and buzz will be fast and intense but also muted and discrete about whether and when Enrique Iglesias may step down from the presidency.
Iglesias, 74, is in his 17th year as president of the IDB and his term ends in March 2008. Speculation has grown in the last year that he may retire from
the Bank. Rumours intensified in recent months as reports indicated that he is to be named secretary general to the Iberoamerican Summit, the biannual meeting of Iberian, Latin American and Caribbean presidents.
In an interview with Emerging Markets, Iglesias said: "Several approaches have been made to me and I'm very grateful and honoured, but for the time being I have no decision to announce." The post at the Iberoamerican Summit would have to be created, a move that cannot happen before the next meeting of the organization's directors around June. This fact is fuelling speculation that Iglesias could possibly leave the Bank this autumn, sources say.
A certain kind of momentum and buzz would give the nod to Brazil for a succession at the Bank since the region's largest country has never held the presidential post.
But a Brazilian presidency could face obstacles. The decision on the new Organization of American States (OAS) presidency, set for April 11, will influence the IDB succession, speculates one source. Should Jose Miguel Insulza, the Chilean candidate, who is a socialist by background, win, the chances for a Brazilian to receive the IDB leadership post would diminish. The US administration is unlikely to accept a candidate nominated by the left-wing government of President Lula, as that would see two important Latin American leadership positions go to left-wingers, adds the source.
Under Lula, Brazil has developed a pro-active strategy in foreign policy and the international financial architecture. The country is a founder of the Group of 20 developing nations within the WTO. Brazil is also pressing to secure a permanent seat on the UN Security Council.