The unprecedented USD 9.6bn pick-up lifted CBR's FX reserves to USD 128.3bn. This comes after a sharp USD5.9bn drop over the previous 2 weeks, and takes reserves USD 3.8bn (3.1%) higher year-to-date.
In 2004 reserves soared 61.9% to USD 124.541bn. Now they provide a spectacular 17.2 months of import cover on a moving 12-month average. Exporters earlier held substantial amounts of USD at bay, hoping to sell them at a higher rate. But when the USD's steep ascent ended, so did their patience. Loads of USD were poured onto the FX market, where they were gulfed up by the central bank.
We think the main reason for the spike-up, besides RUR strengthening, was the upcoming USD 3.33bn debt payment to the IMF, performed Jan 31. CBR usually buys USD big time before large payments. This week reserves might decline, although CBR did purchase USD in undisclosed amounts.