Last Thursday’s unprecedented trade volume pushed up CBR’s FX/gold reserves by USD 5.5bn over Oct 29 –Nov 5. This is a record weekly increase, surpassing even the USD 5.4bn hike on an IMF loan 6 years ago.
Now reserves are at USD 112.8bn, having risen USD 35.9bn (46.7%) ytd. Since Aug 20, the indicator gained USD 24.5bn. The ytd growth already beats the full-2003 increase (USD 28.946bnor 60.3%).
CBR moved up its year-end reserve forecast toUSD 110-120 from USD 100bn. RUR already gained 7.1%ytd versus USD in Jan-Oct.
With the new wave of exportproceeds about to hit Russia, RUR would remains understrong appreciation pressure. CPI inflation is now expected at 11% eop this year against 9.3% ytd in Jan-Oct, however we doubt that is a realistic forecast.