In what some see as a valedictory address before he possibly quits next year, World Bank President James Wolfensohn is expected to make a powerful plea to the governors today for a new global thrust on development issues, before the present "window of opportunity closes". Wolfensohn is likely to argue that the world could become much more hostile to aid and development in future unless initiatives are seized now.
There has recently been a strong retrospective flavour to the wave of development literature authored or commissioned by Wolfensohn and aides say this suggests he will use today as grand finale for reviewing the achievements of his tenure and setting the stage for his successor.
"Geopolitics is once again beginning to affect aid allocation and delivery as the global war on terror separates allies from less cooperative countries," notes Wolfensohn and World Bank Chief Economist Francois Bourguignon in a jointly authored paper released this week. Wolfensohn is expected to draw heavily on the contents of the paper, 'Development and Poverty Reduction, Looking Back, Looking Ahead' in his speech today, one staffer said.
The end of the Cold War and a better understanding of development issues have created a possibly unique opportunity for progress in reducing poverty and accelerating economic and social development, the paper argues. In some countries too, demographic conditions are highly favourable to development.
Yet, says the paper: "There is a danger that all this will seem hopeless tomorrow. Each of these factors may have a limited shelf-life." Wolfensohn and Bourgignon are concerned that political leaders are losing the resolve to initiate change. "Reformers in some developing countries may find it difficult to resist pressure from political opposition parties, given the growing development gaps. And, if political instability follows, development will be even less likely."
There is still time to avert this dismal scenario, the paper suggests. "A few simple policies must be implemented to take advantage of the window of opportunity. The world should at least accelerate the Doha process to open its markets to developing country trade, and create a true development round. Developed countries should at least fulfil their recent aid commitments [and] developing countries should at least improve governance."