Russia is not to double GDP volume even by 2012, according to EconMin’s long-term economic forecast. Earlier this year, president Vladimir Putin proclaimed doubling GDP as the main goal of the country’s economic policy.
Cumulative economic growth will be within 63-88% in 2002-2012, the forecast states. Under the
current economic conditions, export growth would decelerate to 4-6% y/y from 9-14% in 2002-2004, thus GDP growth is unlikely to be above 4-5% y/y, EconMin says.
Possibilities for spurring growth through reduction of the tax burden and RUR depreciation have been exhausted, the forecast implies. To maintain at least 7% y/y economic growth, new economic policy and new institutions are required, the ministry concludes.