By Nick Saywell
Kosovo hit the headlines again this year with its declaration of independence from Serbia. But its autonomy will be bitterly disputed – perhaps for years to come
Kosovo may have announced its independence from Serbia on February 17, but the putative republic’s status is far from clear cut. Its independence is disputed by Serbia and recognized by only a minority of the world’s countries – around 40 other nations.
Moreover, it is not even full independence but “supervised” independence. This means that the civilian administration of Kosovo will continue to be ultimately in the hands of the international community. Until now this job has been done by the United Nations’ Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK), the body set up under UN Security Council Resolution 1244.
And that’s where the troubles start.
UNMIK’s role is about to be wound down and, theoretically, the international presence is to be headed by the European Union. However, Serbia refuses to recognize the EU’s right to take over in Kosovo and insists that it will only do business with UNMIK. In this Serbia is backed by Russia, its closest ally, which is lobbying at the UN for UNMIK to continue in place.
The decision to hand over to the EU is in the hands of UN secretary-general, Ban Ki-moon. Under Resolution 1244, the Security Council does not have to be consulted on the matter, and therefore the threat of a Russian veto can be avoided.
But that does not make the secretary-general’s decision easy, as two forces will bear on the situation.
The UN is under pressure from the West – seven of the G8 members have recognized Kosovo’s independence – to let the EU take over. “However, the UN Secretariat is concerned as to what spillover taking a certain position on Kosovo will have on being able to operate in other parts of the world,” says Alex Anderson, Kosovo project director of the International Crisis Group.
In the end the EU mission will probably be given the go-ahead, but UNMIK may also remain, albeit with a skeleton staff.
If the make-up of the international presence is in the hands of the secretary-general, the identity of its head is a matter that has to be confirmed by the Security Council. Any efforts in the Security Council to approve a figure endorsing the EU line would be subject to a Russian veto and doomed to failure.
International recognition
Moreover, the Kosovo government wants to get the supervision period over as soon as it can. Muhamet Hamiti, senior political adviser to the Kosovo president Fatmir Sejdiu, says: “We will work to make sure it is not a long period – at least not anything like the duration of UNMIK. Kosovo wants to be able to stand on its own feet as soon as possible.”
A top priority of the Kosovo government is membership of the EU and Nato. This is a process that will take time. “There are rules governing accession to the EU, Nato, and indeed other institutions. Most of the EU and Nato countries have recognized Kosovo,” says Hamiti.
“We will have to be recognized by all of them to be able to embark on our full-fledged integration process. I believe we will be able to embark upon this long road soon. With regard to membership in the UN, again there are rules; it may take time.”
One barrier is the diplomatic opposition of Serbia, which still considers Kosovo as a break-away province in its own nation state. Having failed to prevent Kosovo’s declaration of independence, Serbia is intent on preventing it from entering international organizations. “We would like to defend our right before all international organizations to the integrity and sovereignty of Serbia,” says Branislava Alendar, Serbia’s deputy minister for Kosovo.
“We are a member country of the UN, the OSCE (Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe) and the Council of Europe, and we are recognized within our borders. Since the inviolability of borders is something underlined in all international documents, we would like to fight before these organizations.”
Alendar says “We have already approached all three international organizations and have asked them and their member countries not to recognize and not to allow independent Kosovo to become a member.”Serbia has recalled its ambassadors to countries that have recognized Kosovo. Alendar describes this as: “diplomatic steps to show we do not agree with the act they have taken in that respect, and show that we think they have breached the charter of the UN.”Kosovo’s path towards the European Union is hampered by the fact that not all EU countries, including Spain and Greece, have recognized Kosovo.
The European Commission monitors Kosovo’s progress on EU-related matters through a system called the Stabilization and Association Process Tracking Mechanism. However, the first formal stage towards EU accession – a feasibility study by the EC – which would open the way to Stabilization and Association Agreement negotiations has to be mandated by the EU member countries themselves.
Repairing internal divides
Here, the most difficult objections to overcome will be those of Cyprus, which has been divided for 34 years. It fears the precedent Kosovo creates for Turkish northern Cyprus, which declared independence in 1983 but is recognized internationally only by Turkey.
The long-running “frozen conflict” in Cyprus is similar to that in northern Kosovo. This area north of the Ibar river is overwhelmingly populated by Serbs. News of the independence declaration was met by massive and initially violent protests in Mitrovica, the area’s main town, itself divided by an ethnic border, the Ibar, which flows through the town.
Northern Kosovo’s political desire to remain with Serbia is reinforced by economic interests as money is flowing into the area from Serbia, which is funding parallel institutions as one method of retaining influence.
The new Serbian budget has put aside as much as E500 million for Kosovo Serbs. Although this is also true of the Serbian enclaves, which hold an estimated 60% of Kosovo Serbs, Serbia’s efforts are more easily achieved in northern Kosovo because it is contiguous with Serbia proper.
Hamiti admits it may be some time before the Kosovo government is in control of the whole of the former province. Formal partition is rejected both by Kosovo and by Serbia, but de facto partition looks as though it is here to stay for the foreseeable future.
Kosovo’s best chance for joining an international organization in the short term is represented by the World Bank and IMF, organizations whose voting systems are dominated by western countries supportive of Kosovo. Alendar reckons that both institutions will have to change their rules to do this, however.
The official Kosovo line is that it will soon join the IMF and World Bank. This access – and a donors’ conference scheduled for June – will, Hamiti believes, help Kosovo to access funds and its economy to benefit from independence.
Outside Kosovo, the declaration of independence has caused political upheavals in Serbia – the ruling coalition fell apart over Kosovo, with prime minister Vojislav Kostunica taking a harder line than his coalition partners. Elections have been called for May 11. With no party forecast to win a majority, most predictions are for Kostunica to form a coalition with the nationalistic Serbian Radical Party or else a deadlock in forming a government.
“Either way,” says International Crisis Group’s Anderson, “we’re going to see the same Kostunica people with the key levers of power regarding Kosovo policy for at least the next few months, if they take six or seven months to form a government after the elections and possibly beyond.”