By Bernard Kennedy
As Turkey’s political crisis deepens, Onur Oymen, deputy chairman of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), says the EU must make up its mind on Turkey now – not in 20 years’ time
The foreign affairs spokesman of Turkey’s largest opposition party has warned that Ankara will reconsider its customs union with the EU unless the latter signals clearly that it is willing to have Turkey as a member. Deputy Republican People’s Party (CHP) chairman Onur Oymen’s views reflect a widespread dissatisfaction with the EU relationship which, however, has yet to permeate the Islamist-dominated ruling party, the Justice and Development Party (AKP).
The former foreign ministry under-secretary does not conceal his hopes that the CHP might head up an anti-AKP coalition after the upcoming general election. The CHP will improve conditions for foreign direct investment, he promises, but he expresses reservations about current “hot money” policies and unconditional privatization.
“For 40 years, government and opposition have supported a policy of joining the EU,” Oymen declares. “Even within the last two years, government and opposition parliamentarians have both supported reforms in parliament. However, we are noticing a change in the mood in the major European countries – especially in France and Germany. Even if Turkey fulfils all the conditions for membership, they are suggesting that Turkey should be offered a second-class membership or an alternative kind of partnership. This is not acceptable to any political party in Turkey or to the Turkish population.”
No slavery
In December 2006, the EU froze talks with Turkey on eight chapters of the acquis, citing Turkey’s failure to open its ports and airports to [Greek] Cypriot vessels. Turkish leaders were not even invited to the Union’s fiftieth birthday celebrations in Berlin in March. Oymen says the AKP was over-optimistic: “They thought the door was wide open.” He deplores the EU acceptance of the Greek Cypriot administration as the only representative of Cyprus. “No Turkish government can accept that,” he states. “No Turkish government which accepts it can survive.”
“European leaders ... are making Cyprus a condition and at the same time they are not offering anything in return,” the ex-ambassador argues. “So this is the question we ask our EU partners: Are you ready to take Turkey as a full member if we accomplish the conditions in the same way as the other [candidate] countries did? We can’t be kept sitting in the waiting room for ever. You can’t answer this question in 20 years’ time!”
And if the answer is ‘No’? “We are ready to do everything to meet the requirements of EU membership,” Oymen insists. “But if the EU comes out against us, we will take whatever steps are necessary to survive in the world. We will not be slaves to the EU ... We will have to rethink our policies, including the customs union.”
Coalition Prospect
The elections will pit the AKP – outright winners with 34% of the vote in 2002 – against far-right and centre-right parties as well as against the CHP. The EU is by no means the only issue up for debate. As this year’s abortive presidential election process has demonstrated, five years of real GDP growth averaging 7.5% have done little to reduce political tensions. Discrepancies in wealth and income remain very visible, and the government has faced fierce criticism from nationalists and secularists, who charge it with abandoning national interests and seeking to Islamicize society.
Meanwhile, the Kurdish question continues to breed bitterness and violence. The US-backed Kurdish entity in neighbouring Iraq is charged with sheltering anti-Turkish guerillas. Islamist terrorists are active too, and several Christians have been murdered.
Financial commentators await the outcome of the polls with trepidation. They contrast the relative discipline of single-party rule by the AKP – which has broadly followed the IMF-agreed programme of fiscal stringency and reforms – with the ups and downs of the 11 preceding years under coalition governments.
Oymen takes a different view. “Even if there is a coalition, I believe that the CHP will be at the head of it,” he remarks. “There are coalition governments in many countries. They can be successful if they agree on the basic principles. The principles for governing a modern economy and the principles of our foreign and defence policy are well known. All parties agree on these except for the current ruling party. There is no basic disagreement on these principles in Turkish society either.”
The right investments
Oymen believes a CHP government would be good for business. “We will fight effectively against corruption and red tape,” he pledges. “We will create good opportunities for investments which bring technology and create jobs. Our economic rules and standards will not be any less forthcoming than in any European country.”
“We will also reverse the bad governance of this government in areas like income distribution, regional development, tax evasion, the external deficit, the parallel economy and interest rates,” Oymen goes on. Opposition parties and some entrepreneurs argue that dependence on capital inflows to finance the large current account deficit has led to a high interest rate/strong lira policy, which is damaging the real economy.
“These are not healthy conditions. You can survive for a while on hot money. But effective measures have to be taken for sustainable development. We are afraid that, under the current policies, we could face another crisis in the years ahead,” the CHP deputy chief explains.