Brazil’s Treasury Secretary Godoy predicted that real interest rates will drop to 4% (from ~9% currently) in the medium to long term. He also forecasts GDP growth will grow more rapidly, under the country revised methodology, to 5%. Analysts expect such figures could bring forward investment grade status. Brazil also announced its peso-denominated 2028 bonds will be issued twice more this year, to take advantage of favorable investor demand.
Mexico’s IGAE (global monthly economic activity indicator) fell 0.2% m/m, for the fourth consecutive month. Though in January it did record +2.7 y/y GDP growth, analysts expect weakening US import demand will affect the country’s growth prospects.
Poland’s NBP kept its interest rates at 4%. But analysts expect that rates may rise in the medium-term as 1.9% y/y inflation recorded in February is hot on the heels of the NBP’s CPI target of 2.5%.
Moody’s issued its annual report on Romania positively noting its investment-grade ratings and stable outlook, reflecting low government debt and the significant economic restructuring of the past few years. The foreign currency country ceiling for bonds is A1, based on the foreign currency government bond rating of Baa3. Moody’s forecasts that deepening EU relations bodes well for growth.
Information provided by Euromoney group sources.