There is no end in sight to Ecuador ’s political conflict, with less than one month to go before the April 16 referendum on a new constitution.
The election of an assembly to write Ecuador ’s 20th constitution was a key plank of President Rafael Correa’s election campaign, and he has pushed hard for it since taking office in January.
The last constitution was written in 1998, two years after its long-running political crisis began.
While the mechanisms for the upcoming election are still in the works, the process has created massive political turmoil. Lawmakers have fired election authorities, and the latter have canned more than half of the 100-member unicameral Congress.
“Everyone has a stake in this mess and the outcome is highly uncertain,” Gonzalo Ruiz, a political scientist in Quito , the capital, said.
Congress voted on March 6 to fire the head of the Supreme Election Tribunal (TSE), Jorge Acosta, and block the $16 million Correa had requested for the referendum process. Congress had grudgingly approved the referendum on the assembly two weeks earlier.
The following day, the TSE fired the 57 lawmakers, accusing them of trying to disrupt the electoral process. President Correa claims that he is uninvolved in the conflict, but has thrashed the politicians, demanding that they accept the decision.
The TSE has convoked alternative representatives to fill the 57 seats, but Congress has not been able to meet. Police officers continue to surround the legislative palace to keep the impeached lawmakers from entering the building. Political parties are refusing to seat the alternatives. For Congress to function, at least eight alternatives need to be sworn in to guarantee a 51-seat majority.
“President Correa has used this crisis to further undermine the Congress, to try to get a legislature that is politically under his control,” said Ruiz.
Correa has few allies in Congress, choosing not to run with a congressional slate. He maintained throughout the election campaign that Congress represents no one and calls the members “pseudo-congressmen.”
The TSE, meanwhile, is working overtime to prepare for the vote. “We are still working on the details. The process will last for some time if voters approve the election for a constituent assembly,” said Jorge Arosemena, president of the electoral tribunal in Guayas , Ecuador ’s largest province.
If the referendum happens and voters approve Correa’s plan, Ecuadorians will face months of further polls. According to a preliminary schedule, election of assembly members would come in October 2007. The members would have eight months to a year to write the new document, which would then be submitted to a referendum.
The political turmoil has so far overshadowed, in Ecuador , at least, Correa’s other controversial policies, such as restructuring the foreign debt. The government threatened to default in February, but paid the $135-million coupon at the last minute.