Fitch Ratings reports that delinquency rates for U.S. commercial real estate collateralized debt obligations slipped from 12.2% in June to 12% last month, but analysts do not expect the trend to continue. Stacey McGovern at Fitch, said the decline does not accurately reflect credit risk levels of the assets involved, noting, “The average base case modeled losses for these CDOs is approximately 34%, while total realized losses to date are closer to 5%. McGovern added that the average modeled default rate is significantly greater than the current default rate: 56% compared to 1%."