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Deutsche Bank predicts $155bn of private sector CMBS
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Single asset, single borrower deals drove the US CMBS market in 2025, particularly on New York City collateral as office attendance rose. With interest rates predicted to fall further in 2026, market participants are looking forward to a greater variety of deals on commercial real estate from other cities and sectors, writes Pooja Sarkar
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Bank of America Merrill Lynch's securitization research team said that they expect Italy’s NPL issuance volumes for 2019 to be lower than last year’s levels, despite the renewal of the Garanzia Cartolarizzazione Sofferenze (GACS) scheme and provisions added to encourage securitization of unlikely to pay (UTP) assets.
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Despite a spat between the rating agencies over a French CMBS, execution on the deal looks like a blowout success, with the final senior spread tightened down to 90bp and the deal still 2.6 times done. Fitch argued that the trade should be treated as credit-linked to EDF, the only tenant, which would have capped the rating at A-, but investors disagreed.
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A note published by two Goldman Sachs researchers this week recommended that investors go short on CMBX triple-As as the commercial real estate cycle eventually turns and spreads blow out on the CMBS bonds referenced by the index.
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Sabal Capital Partners, a small balance commercial real estate lending company, has started a private CMBS conduit, with the aim of aggregating collateral and issuing a securitization by the end of this year.
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The repayment of the first European multi-loan CMBS since the crisis is mired in a legal tug-of-war between Blackstone, the deal’s sponsor, and Italian media group RCS, which is chaired by Urbano Cairo, a former assistant to Silvio Berlusconi.
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The US CMBS sector is off to a strong start in February following a slower than usual opening to the year, with issuers enjoying heavy oversubscription levels and tight spreads for deals in the market at the start of the week.
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Issuers priced the first two conduit CMBS offerings of the year on Friday afternoon, placing the benchmark triple-A notes at considerably tighter levels compared to the last deal of 2018.
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While capital markets recover from November and December’s year-end volatility and investors are learning to look on the bright side again, commercial real estate financiers meeting at the annual CREFC conference in Miami this week were dealing with the difficult reality of a potentially overvalued market and more competition to close deals.
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The US commercial mortgage-backed security (CMBS) market is moving cautiously into 2019, and fears of widening spreads and shrinking market share compared to other forms of real estate debt capital are sure to be on the minds of attendees at the annual CRE Finance Council (CREFC) industry event in Miami next week.