Tunisia is banking on reform of education to revitalise its economy and, equally crucially, fight Islamist extremism, Yassine Brahim, minister of development, investment and international co-operation, toldEmerging Markets.
His remarks come as his country’s growth has been hammered by a decline in tourism after three terrorist attacks last year.
So far this year, things are going better. “We are on track for 2% growth this year,” said Brahim. “We hope there will not be any dramatic events like last year. This year we have just had one attempt in the south that the security forces were able completely to stop. We are making progress on our security programme and hope that will continue through to the summer.”
Nevertheless, holiday bookings are sharply down in a sector that used to account for 15% of the economy, before shrinking 35% last year. The attacks in Paris and Brussels have not helped either, by raising awareness of Islamist violence.
“Tunisia is facing some difficult times, especially from a security point of view,” said Marie-Alexandra Veilleux, head of the EBRD’s Tunisian office, opened in 2013. “One family out of four lived from the tourism industry, directly or indirectly.”
The EBRD’s forecast for growth is a more cautious 1.4%, just revised down from 3% in November.
Central to Tunisia’s effort to rejuvenate its economy and society is a new five year strategic development plan, promised after its coalition government took office last year. Ministers have just approved it and passed it to parliament.
The third axis of the plan, human development, majors on education, aiming to make sure the system equips Tunisians with the right professional skills. “We want to reform the universities to put them at the right level with international accreditations,” said Brahim. “We also need to increase the weight of culture and sport in education. Compared to my generation, we have gone back a bit. Kids are more and more exposed to extremism, especially in an open society which does not restrict access to the internet. We need to open the minds of the kids.”
The reforms, which will also involve connecting schools through technology, are key to Tunisia, whose ambition is to become a hub economy for companies wanting access to Europe, Africa and the Middle East, conscious that its own market of 11m people is small.
A strong legal environment and skilled workforce will be key to that drive.
“Tunisia has succeeded in its political transition now,” said Veilleux. “It is facing its economic and social transition. This is the big challenge for the country, along with security.”
Tunisia has, Veilleux said, “the most secure liberal constitution in the Arab world”.
The need to reinforce its transition to democracy explains why improving governance is the first axis of the plan. “The state has not been strong in the past five years,” Brahim said. “We need to put in place a good level of governance and rejection of corruption.”
Crucial, too, will be reducing the disparity between poor western and southern regions and the wealthier coast. Tunisia is looking for a 50% increase in both public and private investment, to move the economy away from reliance on consumption, and create the road and rail links to give the hinterland access to the coast. Subsidies on fuel and food will be capped at 1% of GDP.